My research study is based on the lesson to be learnt by other transition economies from the 1998 Russian currency crisis. And I really find this topic quite interesting. This interest I derived from the study really motivated me to extensively read wide and came up with questions that guided my formulation of my research hypotheses and conclusions. Actually, the research topic is one that has being widely researched on by other scholars.
Thus, this really aided me in no small measure to get enough data and materials to back up my study report. The choice of data to use and which to leave out really posed a challenge. As the topic has a generic approach cutting across both developed economies and developing ones, it thus provide range of information, that if I was not really focused on the topic subject matter would derail the project completion; making it look clumsy. Hence, I had to really guide myself not too digress too far away from the topic.
Another issue that really posed a challenge as I complete the study is how far I can use the chosen qualitative research design to interpret my data and conclude on my hypotheses. Unlike the quantitative research method that uses identifiable statistical steps in analyzing the data, qualitative method, requires description and argument to form the conclusion of the drawn hypotheses. Sometimes, I feel like am not doing enough to really apply the basic steps to reaching my hypothesis decision. I had to revisit each question and go through them again by applying more interpretations to make a good report.
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Furthermore, in my definition of transition economies I was at first seeing it as countries that are undeveloped trying to assume a developed status, but after reading wide on the available materials I then change my definition as countries that are on the path of moving ahead on the next phase of economic development. Thus, this is applicable to developing and developed countries with the move to advance to the next economic stage. In the course of completing the study I drew three hypotheses to be tested.
I actually wanted to test four hypotheses initially, but after reading through, I found out that two indirectly bear same statement, I had to drop one. The hypotheses were drawn, after my reading of different literature on the causes of Russian 1998 crisis. I found out that in some way the real cause of the country’s crisis is similar to those observed with some other transition economies that have experienced currency crisis in the past. This usually has to do with the absence of stabilized currency regime; where currencies are overvalued.
Hence, there is usually the fear to adopt currency devaluation with the initial unfavourable result it brings. Also, government of these countries usually takes to rigid control of stock market and other stringent policies that tend to discourage foreign investors from investing their economies, thus, reducing the level of capital inflow. The hypothesis drawn to check the effect of debt default on the economy growth of a transition economy is chosen as this is actually what aggravated the Russian 1998 crisis, as foreign investors began to nurse fears based on the speculation that government would default on domestic and foreign debts.
In order to really find out the effect these factors had in escalating the Russian 1998 crisis, and the lessons to be leant from them, I decided to use them as my study hypotheses. Another issue has to do with data collection. In this type of project, as I stated in Chapter three: 3. 2 data collection method, the use of secondary data is adequate as the generation of primary data would not only be time consuming; considering the time limit for the project completion, but also cost ineffective.
Thus, with the generic nature of the topic, secondary data derived from government publications and reports, including those from publication form international organizations such as World Bank, IMF etc were useful for the study. Also, data were used from articles in journals report, some sourced via the internet, which were adequately referenced. In plotting the Graphs derived from IMF reports, Russian government statistics reports and from some useful website such as http://stockcharts. com/ I had to modify the image size through photo Image Paint.
I actually did the data interpretation and based on these interpretations with other supporting descriptions and arguments raised from other conclusion reached by other scholars I was able to draw conclusion for each of the three research hypotheses. The study was able to bring out some lessons that would be useful for other transition economies. However, I still think other researcher would be able to build on my findings and develop it in future studies. Also, I expect adequate criticisms to some of my conclusions reached in the study.
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