International Portfolio Diversification: World Oil Economy
The prospect of innovating new technology is not only very economical but it also serves as an operational assistance to solve the forthcoming oil crises. With the help of this new technology, by 2015, we will be capable of earning about $10 billion annually. Under the current scenario, many people have predicted that the oil crises will prevail in the future. Daniel Yergin expressing his concern said that “people seem to have forgotten that oil prices like other commodities keep fluctuating and these can go up again”.
Robert Dole pointed out, “in the future security of world’s oil and gas supplies will be a vital interest of the US and other Powers”. (Romm and Curtis, 1996) The consequences of the rising trade deficit on the security of our oil resources have also been underlined by Alan Greenspan; the Chairman of the Federal Reserve bureau. Department of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) states that the daily consumption of oil by 2010 will rise to 20 million barrels.
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The International Energy Agency debating increase in population, urbanization and industrialization commented that the world’s population specifically of Asia and Latin America will increase about 50% by 2020. (Romm and Curtis, 1996) It means more villagers will move to city resulting in increase in the consumption of energy and oil and the decrease in the cultivating area as oil the fundamental unit of urbanization. An analysis done by the national laboratories of the Energy Department shows that “the per capita energy consumption of china and India’s urban population can rise to 45% in the coming years”.
Consequently, their daily consumption of oil will rise up to 119 million barrels. This is twice the global oil consumption today. (Romm and Curtis, 1996) Under the worldwide economic depression the global energy demand of oil is expected to rise high. According EIA, 80% of this demand will be fulfilled by the Persian Gulf. It means that within 10-15 years the export market share of Gulf countries will increase up to 67% of its current share. Moreover, EIA predicts with this increase in the demand of oil by 2010, the oil prices will rise up to $24 a barrel; causing a 75% increase in the export market.
Besides, other countries have initiated a 15% and 10% increase in their oil production and in their proven reserves respectively. Unfortunately their reserves durability has fallen to 18-17 years. Unlike these countries OPEC’s attempt to raise its production and proven reserves to 20% and 75% will raise its productivity for ninety years. On the whole is seems that the economy and security of the United State is in the hand of OPEC countries, due to its increased dependence on oil. (Romm and Curtis, 1996)
In the coming decade, the US is expected to import about 60% of its oil, of which one third will be imported from Persian Gulf this will raise its trade deficit in oil to $100 billion yearly. This is a great and persistent setback to its economy. In past decades the oil import has increased vulnerability to raised oil price increase. This is always fallowed by economic recession. Hence, by 2010 the oil revenue of the Persian Gulf nations is likely to increase to $250 billion from its current price of $90 billion annually. it means that the wealth of Persian Gulf will raise to $1. 5 billion in the next decade.
This scenario is of great concern as it will bring heavy weaponry, influence and mischief in the troubled region of gulf. This may Increase military and technical expertise for Russia. (Romm and Curtis, 1996) Noticeably, in the future economic recession the competitors of US will be the Asian countries with their growing consumption of oil rather than the NATO countries. Whose measures to consume limited oil are of are helpful to US in the current a future scenarios. (Romm and Curtis, 1996) Presently, “International Departments of Energy (IDE)” are trying to explore and extract oil from countries other than Gulf e. . certain reserves of oil have been explored form Soviet Union. Hence, to facilitate these stances Department of Energy (DOE) is encouraging the privatization of many oil companies; particularly, those situated in Mexico and Latin America. In fact DOE is spending $10 million annually to develop advance oil field technologies. This will be helpful to reduce the cost of finding and extracting oil. EIA believes that US import of crude oil will reach to 10 million barrels within 15 years; even after maintaining a decline in the domestic oil usage. (Romm and Curtis, 1996)
To reduce oil consumptions DOE has invested ten of million of dollars in automobile sector for The development of less fuel consuming cars and trucks with internal combustion engine, electricity run cars, boifuel consuming cars, super efficient hybrid vehicle, and devices with energy storage capacity like batteries etc. it is also investing to use the wastes of crops instead of natural gas. Most experts believe that the long term replacement of oil is only the fuel cells technology. Even if oil prices decreased, DOE’s attempt to produce alternatives will be helpful in many ways.
These initiatives will create jobs and will save the money otherwise invested to import foreign oil. It will help in environment protection as on using these technologies less fuel will be consumed. (Joseph J. Romm and Charles B. Curtis, 1996) David and Crucini were conducted to analysis the variability among trade and Sudden movements of oil prices. For this reason we studied the correction terms of trade and other variable. Three oil producing countries – two industrial and on non industrial- were taken as sample.
And a correlation was conducted among these industrial and non industrial oil producers. The results of the study explain the changes in oil production tends to affect the industrial productivity and ultimately to the trade. If production increases trade will also increase and with the decline of production trade will also decrease. (Backus, & Crucini, 2000) This also assists in finding the “correlation between the terms of trade and output generated”. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the trade terms and the increase in productivity.
Increase in trade is directly proportional to the increase in productivity; if trade increase productivity will also increase. Besides, there is a negative correlation between the terms of trade and oil price hike. Trade decreases with the increase in oil prices and increase with the increase in oil prices. (Backus, & Crucini, 2000) The mechanism explained above also affects the trade and productivity of the items produced in the country. If there is an increase in the products domestically produces and traded, there prices will decrease.
But if there is a decline in the production and trade of these products, an increase in their prices will be viewed. Therefore, If the oil supply is disrupted it will reduce the productivity and trade ability of an industrialized country. It is due to the fact that most of non oil producer industrialized countries import oil for use in their industries. So if there is a shortage of oil it will cause decrease in the products produced by the industry. In other words one can say that the oil prices are inversely related to the trade and productivity of a country.
Therefore if there is an increase in the prices of oil it will badly affect the economy thus causing economic recession. (Backus & Crucini, 2000) The behavior of international oil prices in the postwar economy can be understood through the economic recession of 1970’s and 1980’s. When countries have to experience sudden increase and decrease in the oil prices. Moreover, between 1973-1986 oil prices underwent a noticeable changes in different directions: output vitality increased in UK, US Italy and France. However a noticeable decrease in the output was observed in Germany and Japan.
Similarly an increase in the consumption of oil was perceived in Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States while declined in consumption of oil was by Germany and Japan.. Notwithstanding, this increase in the trade of five countries, the correlation of the exports was negative. The results showed that the trade prices are short lived and synchronized by the changes in the relative oil prices. (Backus & Crucini, 2000) the non-oil producer countries have large share of fuel in trade for example the Japan’s share in the fuel trade market was 22. 2%.
However after first economic recession and oil price shock in the mid 1970’s a change in fuel share was viewed: France, Germany, Italy and Japan all faced double deficit in their fuel trade. The cause of some of this reversal of trade deficit was the either collapse of oil prices in mid-1980’s or energy conservation. However positive changes were viewed in the fuel share of Australia and Canada while US emerged as a net exporter of fuel through North Sea oil production. On the whole it was proved that oil prices have a cyclical influence upon the terms of trade. Backus & Crucini, 2000) Moreover term of trade of the smaller countries is more volatile as compared larger countries. Sudden increase in the prices of oil reduces the productivity and trade, simultaneously. On the whole this study suggests that there is an unstable relationship between relative price and quantities. Especially when increase in oil prices act differently over time. Hence the terms of, output, and the trade balance can be maintained and kept stagnant by controlling the source of oil price shocks. (Backus & Crucini, 2000)
A crude oil reservoir contains crude oil extracted using primary, secondary, improved, enhanced, or tertiary method. Created liquids and those extracted from mined deposit are not crude oil. There is no doubt that crude oil reservoirs are in vast quantity yet the fact remains that they are finite. In fact most of these reservoirs are almost fully explored or are being explored. Petroleum production has been culminated with the increase in the demand. Currently demand for the crude oil in the developing countries like China, India, South America has risen up to 2%. (Wood et al, 2000)
These countries face increase in the growth of crude oil demand due to increased consumer demand. Crude oil is mostly consumed for transportation and in internal combustion engines. Neither developing country other than China and India demanded high crude oil either due to political or economic reasons. However many economists and industry professionals predicted that over past two decades world crude oil production will increase with increasing frequency. And this increase will cause noticeable impacts on the world oil prices, lifestyle of people, US economy etc. Wood et al, 2000) In April 200, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) marketed the results of their most detailed and modern study. This 5year study was conducted by the geoscientists to compute and analyze the resources of crude oil and natural gas in the world. Basically this study was conducted by USGS “to provide impartial, scientifically based, societal relevant petroleum resource information essential to the economic and strategic security of the United States. ” The results of this study were used by EIA to analyze world oil supply in the long run.
Hence, we can say that the EIA’s analysis is based on historical and geographically derived facts rather than mere assumptions and estimations. (Wood et al, 2000) if the resource base is large it will reach peak of its production at a later stage as compared to a smaller one. Moreover, if following the USGS analysis crude oil continue to produce at 2% Growth rate than and if the production starts declining than till 2037 the production of the world’s crude oil will raise up to 53. 2 billion barrel annually.
However, depending upon the demand it is also likely that by 2112 and 2021 the production of the crude oil may rise to 24. 6 and 48. 5 billion barrel (Wood, Long, Morehouse, 2000) the growing demand of the crude oil can only be reduced trough the invention of new technology e. g. hybrid powered automobiles and substitution of the source of energy e. g. Hydrogen- fed cell. The increase in unconventional sources of production (tar sands and very heavy oil) also depends upon the rate of technological advancement. This type of production is very economic and successfully working in Canada.
However from this study we estimate that oil will peak in the middle of 21st century which means new energy doesn’t have the large time required to penetrate the market. Therefore these results does not justify both the supply and demand of the research (Woo et al, 2000) Since World War II about US recessions were fallowed by sudden increase in oil prices. Although, it doesn’t make any difference, in analyzing the outcome of oil price shock, economic decisions are more concerned with real oil prices rather than nominal oil prices.
However most of the oil shocks are based upon the nominal prices as their magnitude is larger than the overall. Initially the nominal prices stay stagnant and change over time. The difference and nominal is that the former are the outcome of the change in internal economic inflation and have external statistical representation. There form many researchers use nominal oil prices as an explanatory variable to explain oil price economy. (Hamilton, 2005) In an economy dollar have a fairly small share i. e. in 2000 US consumed about 7. billion barrels of oil purchased at a price of $30 a barrel. This shows that dollar share is 2. 2% of the $9. 8 trillion GDP of US. However the nominal GDP of US has risen to 3. 8% in the past few years, after the production and supply disruptions caused by five oil price shocks and economic recessions. (Hamilton, 2005) The decrease in the quantity of oil supplied is actually synchronized by the sudden increase in the fuel prices. The oil shocks contribution of economic downturns should be attributed with changes caused by other factors and capitalization rate.
Theoretically, Increase oil prices will cause a decrease in capital and labor allocation. However, in reality an oil price cause increase in the output (allocating of labor and capital). (Hamilton, 2005) The economic regression of 1949-80 predicted a slow GDP growth of about 2. 9% annually after an oil price hike of 10%. However, 1949-2005 regression predicted only 0. 7% slow GDP growth. This is resulted through the use of less fuel efficient cars. Noticeably net oil prices have shown an increase in the crude oil prices to about 20%.
In 2004 oil prices showed an 18% increase while world production showed an increase of 21%. Similarly 2005 viewed 0. 2% increase in production and 21% increase in oil prices. These figures show that increased demand of oil contributed to the Increase of oil prices during the last years. (Hamilton, 2005) The recession from the oil prices increase suggests that there is some kind of relation between oil prices and productivity. The oil price shock is governed by factor share argument and affects the economy through the disruption caused by consumer and firm’s investment on other goods.
Oil prices also affect the inflation rate governed by monetary policy on long term basis. (Hamilton, 2005) Today, we are so heavily dependent on oil that 90% of our transport, 95% of all good and food products requires oil. In short, today the world is consuming 80 million oil daily and 29 billion barrels of oil yearly. Unfortunately these figures of oil consumption are rapidly rising. According to the US government assumption by 2025 this demand of oil will increase to about 120 million barrel daily and 43 billion barrels yearly. (Leggett, 2006)
America only consumes quarter of global current demand for oil. This is due to the decrease in domestic oil production and increase in demand during last 35 years. These figures show that America’s share of oil import will increase over time. Today, of the 20 million barrels consumed by America about 15 million are imported from the Middle East. The US can cut its import of 5 million barrel by increasing the fuel consumption capacity to miles per gallon of its automobile but instead it has allowed General Motors to build automobiles.
Similarly, the US has increased the Share of Spots Utility vehicles to 24 % by 24%. (Jones et al, 2004) Consequently due to these lavish expenditure US vehicles fuel consumption ability reduce to 2. 44 mile per gallon in 2001 as compared to other countries whose cars have the capacity of moving 60 miles per gallon. (Jeremy Leggett, 2006)On the whole the fact remains that oil is finite thing. Different people have different views in this regard some think that only about 2 trillion barrels of oil is left to be used and discovered while other think that this amount is at most 1 trillion.
The former suggests that oil production will expectedly end till 2030 which means there is enough time to go for alternatives. They also believe that 1. Saudi Arabia have achieved its peak of pumping and couldn’t serve as an alternative during recession 2. the giant oil field have all been exploited and none is left behind however in later case it seems the recession time will come soon and there is less time to innovate is a factor with help of which oil price shock can change macroeconomics. Reallocation of labor after the recession period is really helpful to reduce the effects of oil price shocks.
Under a long lasting oil price rice reduces the energy usage, capital and labor supply which causes a reduction in the investment sector and capital stock market decline as well. Janis suggested that under increased oil prices wages are “potentially significant” even with low oil price and productivity. (Jones et al, 2004) Therefore, it seems that reallocation of capital and revision of investment plans is necessary to oil price shock effects on the macroeconomics. Oil price shock has a double effect on the destruction and creation of jobs in all sectors.
In the case of positive oil price shocks sector responds ten times positively than in the negative shock situations. Increase in petroleum products cause an increase in the wages of skilled workers but 3%- 4% decrease in real wages of workers. In other wards one can say that oil price increases have a negative impact in the short run but in long run it has a positive. With the increase in oil prices unemployment also. (Jones et al, 2004) Interest rates have strongly asymmetric response towards positive and negative oil price shock in short run and a moderately asymmetric response to long run.
It means that the oil price works primarily through GDP mechanism and affect the interest rates with its fluctuating prices. Hence, if the prices of petroleum increase the crude oil prices will also increases but if the prices petroleum decreases the price of the crude oil will also decrease. Jones, Leiby, and Paik suggested that “In case of crude oil relation with GDP asymmetry is the speed of response to the price in price GDP case asymmetry is the magnitude of the price hike”. Some experts say that the oil price of the 1970s was the real cause of the economic recession.
Both energy prices other words it can also be said that the oil price shocks primarily through employment, GDP and interest rate. (Jones et al, 2004) There is a little doubt about the impact of the monetary policy’s response to the hike in the oil price. However, DOE did reached a conclusion that during 197-1990 episodes of recession that some of the GDP reduction was caused by a deficiency in the monetary policy and was outcome of oil price hike. This means that an alternative monetary policy could have averted recession of 1970s.
One can say that during economic recessions oil prices indirectly act on the GDP through the monetary policy. The prices shock in the OPEC is actually the result of depressed growth but due to the increased demand of the oil. (Jones et al, 2004) After 1980s recession OPEC its ability to keep the prices of oil stable this type of change may be cause due to Oil prices never affected GDP. It was viewed to be so due to the lack of lengthy data to be studied. Since the World War II the pricing of world oil market was not as linear and simple as was observed.
So when the flexibility in observing thing emerged the observers began to understand the price signal. (Jones et al, 2004) The changes in the stock market, which are caused by increase in economic activity is crucial for economic activity. Both present and future impacts of oil prices on the stock price are notice worthy and helpful to determine the future scenarios. The relationship between the stock market and the oil prices is reflected through the effects of stock market on cash flows. In other wards the cash flow of oil prices have a positive or negative impact on the stock market. 0% of the oil price shocks are responsible for the ups and downs in the business circle while only 16% is responsible for the fluctuations in the U. S. (Jones et al, 2004) The above discussion proves that during an economic recession GDP-oil relationship is mostly observed. This relationship can not be either avoided by the alternative monetary. Mover over after World War II the oil prices have been proved to be non reliable and constantly fluctuating factors. Empirical research also shows that reallocation of 11% manufacturing labor occur after oil price hike.
Hence, it seems that from a macroeconomic perspective all the price movements are different. It is necessary to develop policies helpful to deal with the oil price shocks. (Jones et al, 2004) To forecast oil supply a low cost approach can be helpful. It will help to determine the nature of the bias and recurring errors. This type of approach is necessary to explain the difficulties involved in making petroleum supply forecasting at a macroeconomic level. (Lynch, 2002) Forecasting of oil prices is in practice since late 1970s e. g. Lynch predicted that the by 2000 Gulf’s boom in oil production will decline to $13-18. per barrel. But this forecast was base upon the economic recession of 1970. Despite being shifting from the hands of one company to the other, oil prices have remained constant to $14 per barrel throughout its history. But this stability of the prices changed in 1970s, when it had to face price hikes due to disruptions caused by supply and demand. (Lynch, 2002) The OPEC decision to introduce a long term price raisin path supported the expectations of having a 2-4% price growth. This step was so mush supported that for many years’ people demanded these types of initiations.
For a long time there is form cast that oil prices will remain flat. However, it seems that the price hike of 2000 will alter it. Since 1980s the researches related to oil production and supply has become pessimistic which a common approach before 1979; when most of the studies focused upon scarcity of recourse, and need for new discoveries outside the Middle East. The production of world crude oil has changed over time. In a study conducted for non-OPEC forecasts that that most of the errors and bias faces were same leading to the peak in production. Lynch, 2002) The development of a new technology for the extraction of oil does have many positive consequences, who really demand appreciation. Today with the help of technology many discovered but unutilized oil reserves have been drilled and are being marketed. For instance, oil reserves of North Sea were abandon due lack of heavy expenses in 1970s. Today these reserves have been discovered with the help of technology at a very low cost. According to a study 1998 with the use of modern technology the oil reserves of US rose to about 24000 tones.
This means that with the help of modern technology US underwent a remarkably 16% increase in its reserve. (Lynch, 2002) Notwithstanding this increase it is also true that these reserves are finite and will tend to decrease over time. Lynch conducted a study in this field and found that the production oil reserve will undergo a 10-20% decrease annually since its drilling and extracting starts. Even between Gulf countries the productivity level is different and depends upon the location. For instance, Drilling in Saudi Arabia will bring more revenues as compared to drilling in Oman.
However, it is also a fact that most of the countries try to hide the actual situation and capacity of their oil reserves e. g. according to the report of Canadian oil experts the oil reserves of Canada remained same during 1999 and 2000. (Lynch, 2002) Many countries are reluctant to import oil in heavy quantity due to heavy tax rates. As most of the oil producing countries demand high taxes on the export of their products. In such cases producing countries raise the prices which then seriously affect the global economy.
However, since the formation of OPEC oil prices are continuously regulated and controlled. (Lynch, 2002) The world oil production is regulated under Saudi Arabia and OPEC members since 1970s. After the oil shocks of 173 the new sources of oil supply have been discovered: Mexico, North Sea, China, Alaska, etc. Besides, Russia is the third largest producer and the second largest exporter of oil. Today, OPEC has a 40% share of the world oil supply which is sufficient to exert power in marinating and fluctuating world oil prices. The oil usage of US has been decreased since1980s economic recession.
In 2000, after sudden 16% increase of oil prices US oil production declined to 12% As a result of these different trends in consumption. This means now the US more rely on imports than before. However, the US exports the domestically produced oil at the globally set prices. After the terrorist attacks in US oil prices were reduces bringing great setbacks to the world economy. This happened because of the ban imposed on air travel. (Perry, 2001) The Middle East does not seem to be affected by terrorists, yet its geographical locality and vulnerability to the terrorists can not be ignored.
Currently both increase and decrease in the oil prices is viewed. (Perry, 2001) The recent oil forecasts claim that next economic recession will be caused by terrorist attacks and the prospect of authorizing limited airlines theses acts are likely to reduce the world oil demand which will ultimately lead to global recession. The OPEC could avoid this recession by introducing production and. Saudi Arabia has initiated by applying a production and price cut to its oil reserves: its oil price has reduced to $4 a barrel in October 2001 immediately after terrorist attack on the US.
The oil prices decline of 1980s and 1990s will be very much helpful in the current situation: by assisting airline industry, slowing down the inflation rates, and will assist inpursuing expansionary monetary policy. (Perry, 2001) The two recessions fallowed by the world war were greatly associated with the disruptions in the oil: • During the Arab-Israel war of 1974. Arab countries announces major cut in the production on oil and prohibited shipments to the supporters of Israel. The OPEC raised the crude oil price to $12 from $3. The 1975 economic recession faced both higher oil prices and depressed the oil demand. It was the time when OPEC had to cut production to maintain high oil prices. But this prospect negatively as with the fear of shortage of supplies certain precautions were adopted. (Perry, 2001) It was the time when US felt need and created the strategic petroleum reserve similar to those established in industrial countries. In addition, also applied buying constraints on consumer and imposed moderate price control measures on the domestic oil producers and refiners. (Perry, 2001)
After the recessions of 1974-75 and the Iran-Iraq war of 1980 the high the OPEC prices shocked the world. OPEC raised its price to $30 a barrel exceeding to $35 a barrel. The imposition of greatly high taxes on petroleum products caused high inflation. Ultimately, it will increase the already rocketing food prices. This was the time when more intense monetary policy was in demand. During the 1979-1980 recession, the increase in production was needed to stabilize the market. Saudi Arabia was the first to raise it production up to 8. 6 million barrels a day in 1979 to 10. million barrel in 1980 and 1981. In 1983 and 1985 Saudi again acted and applied a production cut to 5. 0 million barrel and 3. 6 million barrel respectively. Though this worked but during the Arab war OPEC proves its ability to stabilize prizes by raising production to 5. 5 million per barrel, of which Saudi share was 3. 1 million. (Perry, 2001) Today, most of the economic forecasts suggest that the terrorist attacks if not controlled will lead to another economic recession. As terror is attacks will affect and reduce consumer and business spending.
Today the major problem is not the rocketing oil prices but the security of oil reserves. Most of which are will the politically troubled and unstable region of the OAPEC and the OPEC. Today, the most important fear of all oil consuming country is to save the oil reserves from going in the hands of extremists. As bin Ladin has claimed to charge $144 a barrel after conquering the reserves of oil. (Perry, 2001) In the case of reducing the oil supply it will badly affect the economy of the US and the world. The good thing is that if new oil crises arise it will result in the demand for the reduction in foreign oil production.
Notwithstanding, reality will never change that it is impossible to reduce dependence on foreign oil products. Today, the 40% of the US energy demand is fulfilled by the petroleum. The domestic oil reserves of the US have already diminished therefore it will definitely have to import foreign oil to fulfill its needs. Under the today’s scenario, the US consumption of oil will only partially change that also bringing a decline to its industrial economies. (Perry, 2001) The oil price crises emanates from the higher prices produced from the Middle East even if it is not involved in it.
The individual nation producer cannot set their own prices they do have to fallow the prices set by the international market. Otherwise, the world will face great inefficiencies and it would become to fulfill the worldly oil need. Economy will be greatly exposed to the effects of the reduced oil. (Perry, 2001) Economizing oil prices are more helpful in the long run to changing capital stock and usage of less energy but in the short run there are scarcely efficient methods to reduce the effect of high prices it is for this reason that the demand of oil in the short run is more elastic.
This means that 1% cut in the short run will cause 20% of the increase in prices. The magnitude of the impacts oil price rise in the short run depends upon the monetary policies and inflation. This shows that high prices will lead to high inflation and this will greatly affect the economy as the price of oil supply will be transferred to oil producers rather than oil suppliers. However, it is also clear that these years economy has seen less inflation as compared to the past. (Perry, 2001)