Climate Change and Food Security

Changing Agricultural Practices: Shift of Agricultural Crops Subject to Market or Climate Change- A Study of Meghnath Gorahanna and Aurahi VDC in Mahottari District

Climate Change and Food Security


Nepal is an agro-dominated of course rich state. From physiographic facet, Nepal is divided into three distinguishable ecological zones- the Mountain, Hills and Tarai. Each part has its ain biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural differences. Agribusiness is the common business of bulk of population in the state. Almost to a big bulk of 65 per centum of Nepali population are dependent on agribusiness for their supports ( GoN, 2012 ) . The lowland Tarai, is the nutrient basket of Nepal. It is the exclusive part in agricultural excess, providing nutrient grains to the less productive hill and mountain countries. More than 70 per centum of families in Nepal have less than 1 hectare of land and many depend on agricultural lands that are excessively little to run into their subsistence demands ( GoN, 2011 ) . Although agricultural retentions per family are the smallest in the state, this sector dominates the economic system supplying about 35 per centum of the GDP ( CIA, 2011 ) .

At present, Climate Change is a large challenge to the planetary environment and the economic system. Nepal has besides identified clime alteration as a cut acrossing issue by virtuousness of its nature and impacts. Despite nominal nursery gas emanation of about 0.025 per centum ( GoN, 2010 ) , Nepal is listed as a state at utmost hazard to the impacts of clime alteration ( CCVI, 2014 ) .According to the regional appraisal of International Panel of Climate Change the most profound impacts of clime alteration in Nepal will be in the sectors of agribusiness / nutrient security, H2O resources and biodiversity. The heavy trust on rain Federal agriculture, limited irrigation installations, and deficiency of H2O preservation and harvest home patterns makes Nepali agribusiness vulnerable to the impacts of clime alteration. The high dependance of husbandmans on monsoon have increased their exposure to rainfall fluctuation. Furthermore, the variableness in temperature have besides challenged the agriculture patterns. At many topographic points the fickle rainfall has resulted into diminution in harvest production. The state of affairs of deficient rain and increasing temperature have accounted for drouth, whereas the happening of intense rain in short period have reduced the land H2O recharge by speed uping overflow and triping inundations. These fortunes have induced negative effects in the agribusiness impacting harvest production and endangering nutrient security.

Market whether physical or practical is a topographic point where the dealing of goods and services is carried out. Market is governed by demand and supply state of affairs and determines monetary value of goods and services. In instance of unfastened market topographic point, market is a large initiation factor for merchandises, it determines the monetary value and creates the win-win state of affairs of the purchaser and marketer. Tarai is the part of Nepal with the unfastened boundary lines with India and it implies that the market for the merchandises get wide-opened if proved competitory. Evidence from other parts of Africa shows that procedures of agricultural intensification and productiveness growing are frequently driven by hard currency harvests having the development of interlocked recognition, input, and end product markets ( von Braun and Kennedy 1994 ; Dorward, Kydd, and Poulton 1998 ; Shepard 1999 ) . Owing to the higher return from hard currency harvests husbandmans these yearss are more inclined towards hard currency harvest agriculture. At many instances, the local strains of harvest have been replaced by the improved or intercrossed 1s. These intercrossed harvests have higher outputs but at the same clip, they incur immense cost on environment and human wellness. Hybrid harvests fuel the usage of fertilisers and pesticides which causes dirt debasement and increases agricultural disbursals every bit good. Using analytical penetrations from the New Institutional Economics literature, Dorward, Kydd, and Poulton ( 1998 ) have shown that export-oriented hard currency harvests may function to excite smallholder harvest productiveness and income growing, provided that omnipresent recognition market failures can be overcome through institutional inventions in farmer/marketing agent relationships.

The intent of this research is to place the factor which is responsible for the alteration in agricultural patterns in the tarai part. This survey aims to analyze the instance of cultivation displacement from staple harvest to hard currency harvest is whether due to climate alteration or market forces.

Rationale of the Study

Nepal is home to preponderantly rural population. Agribusiness is the pillar of Nepalese economic system which non merely employs two-third of the country’s labour force but besides contributes over tierce in the national GDP. The alteration in agricultural pattern can be due impacts of either clime alteration or market forces. Associating with climate alteration issues, the addition in temperature is likely to do more harm on agricultural sectors in Tarai part compared to the hills and mountains. Tarai part lying at low countries are susceptible to downpours. Monsoon rains, snow thaw, and glacial thaw run downstream from upland parts doing the Tarai the most ataˆ?risk country for deluging. Besides this, the happening of brassy inundations in the fields have besides caused siltation of farm lands and decreased its birthrate. The heavy H2O tabular array and the depletion of groundwater is the another critical job witnessed in Tarai these yearss. This state of affairs has affected the twelvemonth unit of ammunition irrigation. Owing to fickle monsoon and deficiency of irrigation, rice organ transplant is delayed and therefore the production has decreased. There are besides groundss of switching agricultural form. Thus the impact of clime alteration in tarai can endanger the nutrient security of the full state. There is a famine of literature on the factor- based harvest displacements in assorted parts of the universe. In instance of Nepal excessively this sector of research has been out of involvement. Therefore, to carry through the spread that has of course been built between the topographical disparities based on the harvest displacement will be what the range and principle of this research will warrant.

Study Area

The survey country will be chiefly based in the Mahottari territory of Nepal which is one of the premier territories among the six territories of Janakpur zone. Though the territory is a premier manufacturer for harvests, it suffers from drouth and it is besides shattered by the inundation during showery seasons. This territory covers 0.68 % of the entire country of Nepal and the population in the territory is about 2.39 % of the entire population of the state ( Mahottari District Profile, CBS 2065 B.S. ) . Though the territory has chances like fertile cultivable land, entree to electricity, forest, rivers and unfastened boundary line to India, the territory has non been able to come on which besides supports the “Resource Curse Hypothesis” .

As sample for the survey, two VDCs of the territory viz. Meghnath Gorahanna and Aurahi will be purposively selected. The VDC Meghnath Gorahanna is located on the cardinal Tarai part of Nepal whereas Aurahi VDC is really nigh to the main road traveling south from the territory. The entire population of the Meghnath Gorahanna VDC is 6077 in 1048 families, with 3135 female and 2942 as male population. And, the entire population of the Aurahi VDC is 8575 in 1638 families, with 4225 male and 4350 as female population. In footings of exposure ranking of the National Adaptation Plan of Action ( NAPA ) of Nepal, Mahottari falls in high vulnerable territory in the exposure index to climate alteration. The intent for choosing these two wards is that in both of these wards husbandmans have shifted the cultivation from cereal harvests to hard currency harvests.

Aims of the Research:

The overall aim of the survey is to place whether the cultivation displacement from staple harvests to hard currency harvests is climate induced or market driven.

To accomplish the above mentioned general aim, the following specific aims will be fulfilled.

  1. To place the challenges in the agriculture patterns originating out of clime alteration induced environmental debasement in Meghnath Gorahanna and Aurahi VDCs of Mahottari territory.
  2. To transport out cost-benefit analysis of the basic harvests versus hard currency harvests in Meghnath Gorahanna and Aurahi VDCs.
  3. To measure the production form of the harvests in the several wards and its impact on the nutrient security position of the part.

To warrant the above aims, the undermentioned hypotheses will be used:

  1. The cultivation displacement from staple harvest to hard currency harvest is climate induced.
  2. The cultivation displacement from staple harvest to hard currency harvest is market driven.

Research Questions

  1. What is people’s apprehension of environmental debasement due to climate alteration?
  2. What are the challenges in the agriculture patterns originating from clime alteration in the VDCs?
  3. What is the production form of the harvests and the value generated by them in the several wards?
  4. What is the province of the cost-benefit analysis of the basic and hard currency harvests produced in the several wards?
  5. What is the position of nutrient handiness, nutrient use, nutrient handiness and nutrient stableness in the survey country?


The Research Design

As clime alteration impacts have multiple dimensions, research on understanding these dimensions requires a methodological analysis uniting the macro and micro range of question, primary and secondary informations, qualitative and quantitative methods and a cross-disciplinary attack.

To acquire the holistic image and in-depth apprehension of the research issues and concerns, assorted method attack will be applied for research survey, where triangulation of quantitative and qualitative informations will besides be used for this survey.

Primary Data Collection:

The primary nature of the research design of the proposed survey is explorative and descriptive. Quantitative and qualitative primary informations from multi-stakeholders in two different VDCs will be collected utilizing study, in-depth interviews, focused group treatment and PRA techniques such as societal function and transect walk ( for physical confirmation ) . To forestall any biasness in the research, approximately 10 % of the entire population, 100 people will be considered as the sample including both VDCs. Besides that, to keep the quality of research, after the questionnaire studies, Key Informants’ Interview will be carried out with School schoolmasters and Agriculture Officer of the part.

If necessary, Water tabular array analysis utilizing GIS tools and techniques will besides be carried in order to find the depletion of land H2O.

Secondary Data Collection:

Temperature and Precipitation informations of Mahottari territory obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology ( DHM ) will be used to find the tendency analysis.

District and small town profiles will be referred from Central Bureau of Statistics as per the demand.

Datas Analysis:

Both qualitative and quantitative analysis tools and techniques will be used for the information analysis. The cryptography and decryption of informations will be done as per the demand. MS- Word. MS- Excel will be used for the written and graphical presentation of the information. Statistical Package for Social Scientists ( SPSS 20.0 ) will be used for the correlativity analysis, arrested development analysis and histogram analysis as per the research demand.


  1. Lack of temperature and precipitation informations of the specific wards.
  2. This research will be carried out in specific wards of Meghnath Gorahanna VDC and Aurahi VDC of Mahottari territory, therefore the research end products can non be generalized.
  3. This research will be a sample based research within a limited timeframe, so the research end product might hold diverting consequences for a portion of population.

Expected end products

  1. The research will lend to the concluding study to be developed by Women in Environment ( WE ) on the undertaking Populating with Climate Change: Function Experiences and Adaptation Strategies in the Global South and North ( LCC )
  2. This research study will be the foundation papers for the policy preparation sing the factor based cultivation displacement in the tarai part of Nepal.


Climate Change Vulnerability Index ( CCVI ) , ( 2014 ) , Maple croft’s Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas, Available at: hypertext transfer protocol: // ( accessed 04/04/2014 ) .

CIA ( Central Intelligence Agency ) . 2011. The World Fact book.

Dorward. A ; J. Kydd and C. Poulton.eds, ( 1998 ) , “Smallholder Cash Crop Production Under Market Liberalization.” Oxon ; New York, NY: CAB International c1998.

Government of Nepal ( GoN ) , ( 2010 ) , “National Adaptation Programme of Action ( NAPA ) to Climate Change, Ministry of Environment, Kathmandu.

Government of Nepal ( GoN ) , ( 2012 ) , “Economic Survey 2011/12” , Ministry of Finance, Kathmandu.

Government of Nepal ( GoN ) , ( 2011 ) , “Nepal Living Standard Survey ( NLSS ) 2011” , Central Bureau of Statistics, Kathmandu.

Hem R. Regmi. “Effect of Unusual Weather on Cereal Crop Production and Household Food Security” ,The Journal of Agriculture and Environment. ( 2007 ) : 24.

Von Braun and E. Kennedy ( explosive detection systems ) , ( 1994 ) ,Agricultural Commercialization, Economic Development, and Nutrition, The Johns Hopkins Press Ltd. Maryland, 1994.