Who will win the development race

In this essay I will be discovering and Investigating which country Is Ilkely to develop further and faster than the others. NIC's are countries whose level of economic development ranks it somewhere between the developing and first-world classifications. These countries have moved away from an agriculture-based economy and into a more industrialized, urban economy. In the past countries around the world have followed the Industrialisation method of developing. The demographic transltlon model highlights this Industrialisation trend of development using examples of western countries.

How sustainable a country's birth and death rate can highlight the future of development in the country. The development transition model (as shown in fgure 1) is said to highlight how a country develops from a less developed country, toa more economically developed country. China has a low birth rate and a high death rate, 12. 29 and 7. 03, indicating a stage 3-4 stage of the demographic transition model, this is similar to other MEDC countries. When comparing this with India, a high birth rate and a low death rate Indicates that the population is still increasing.

Therefore in order to fully develop, the country must educe its birth rate. The united Arab Emirates out of all the countries has the highest birth rate and the lowest death rate, 15. 87 and 2. 06. which would normally indicate a country that is low in development, however because the united Arab Emeriti's Is an ORC (oil rich country) it hasn't developed industrially, which is what the demographic transition model Is based upon. This explains why the model fits china so well. ORCS develop quickly due to their abundance in natural resources, leading to a high GDP which is spent on the country's infrastructure and facilities. Judging rom the demographic transition model, china seems to be the closest to becoming an MEDC. However India and Dubai have developed their country using a different form of development, often to refer to as 'leap frogging for development'. This is as a result of the country not going through the Industrial revolution, Involving reliance of secondary Industry by Importing and exporting. China's economy has been bullt on secondary industry. They export a huge amount of materials, appliances and resources all around the world, thus leading toa large GDP. Figure 2 highlights the growth of exportation in china over the last 20 years.

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This can also be compared to figure 3, highlighting China's GDP, showing a similar trend to the amount of exports out of the country. 3 India is a country which has not industrialised through development of Its secondary Industry. This perhaps explains when the demographic India has managed to attract a large amount of MEDC TNC work from companies such as Lloyds TSB, HSBC and British gas to be outsourced within their country. TNC's have been attracted to India because of its large English speaking workforce of an estimated 50 million, a stable democracy of over 50 years, and a leading ICT centre et up in Bangalore, Karnataka.

Dubai is classed as an ORC (oil rich country) meaning it has 'leapfrogged' over the industrialisation method of developing. In the 1960's oil was found in abundance within the country, and due to its high value it made Dubai develop over a small amount of time. Economic development, and the progression of a countrys economic development can be a good indication of future development growth. High economic growth indicates that a country has the funds in place to spend on health care, education and infrastructure.

Firstly India, as you can see from gure 3, the countrys economic growth has been growing at a significant rate, with the exception to the 2007 dip. However this may show an unstable economy, meaning that another dip in the countrys GDP per capita is likely. 4 Secondly China, again similarly to India, china has experienced a dip in GDP per capita, which could in theory be repeated in the future. However, in comparison to India, the amount of money the GDP per capita has accelerated over the last few years is much more, with it being Just under 9k in 2011. Compaired with India who had nearly 4k in 2011. as hown in figure 5) 5 Lastly, when looking at the United Arab Emirates, the GDP per capita is a lot more stable, in terms of gradual increase, with little dramatic dips. Also the GDP per capita fgure is almost 5x's that of China. Therefore already Dubai's economy is already much greater than the other countries, highlighting its chances of developing and achieving MEDC status is likely in terms of its economy size and past progression. (as shown in figure 6 The higher a countrys literacy rates, the more likely the people within the country are able to peruse higher paid and desired Jobs.

Not only is this good for a countrys economy, services and employment statistics but also the wellbeing and quality of life of the people within the country. People who are well educated are able to get a Job that they enjoy, that provides a service for their country. This allows the government to take money from them (in the form of taxation) to be spent on local infrastructure and services. When looking at India it seems to be falling low with 74% literacy rates. The United Arab Emirates is further ahead at 77. 9. However overall out of the 3 countries China has the highest adult iteracy rates with 95. % of the population over 15 able to read and write. This also indicates that China's education system is the most developed, ensuring that its population can have the opportunities to good educational facilities. 7 Healthcare is also an important area to assess development, the better the health care facilities in a country are, the healthier the people within the country are. This allows citizens of the country to be able to work within the country with the absence of ill health, or ill health which is easily treatable.

When it comes to physicians per 1000 per year, India as made little development in this area over the past few years with their being no change from 2009-2010 at 0. 6 indicating that there is likely to be little progression in the future. China has seen an increase in the physicians per 1000, with statistics showing an increase of 0. 3 from 2010-2011. However United Arab Emirates has the highest at 1. 9. Thus highlighting that people living within the country have more health. 8 What does the future hold? This is merely based on prediction, based on what the countries are facing now.

Although Dubai's economy has grown the fastest over the shortest amount of time in omparison to the other countries, in recent times Dubai's economy looks in a state of crisis. Dubai relies on oil and tourism for its economy. Dubai's oil output made up 2. 1% of the Persian Gulf emirate's economy in 2008. However Oil in New York slipped to an average price of $62. 02 a barrel in 2009, from an average of $99. 74 in 2008, Bloomberg data show. Dubai's oil production made up 5 % of its income in 2005. This slip may have a long term impact on Dubai's economy as the country will not be receiving as much revenue from oil. Dubai relies heavily on tourism, contributing to 0% of its GDP. However due to the global economic crisis there has been a reduction of the amount of tourism in Dubai. Tourism is an important part of Dubai's economy, directly contributing 19 per cent to its GDP in 2008. The emirate, which attracted 7. 5 million hotel guests in that year, was aiming to double the number by 2015. The data showed a 1. 3% fall in international hotel guests in the emirate for the first three quarters of last year compared with the same period in 2008, boosted by 3% growth in international guests in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, international guest umbers fell 1. 5 per cent. 10 China replys heavily on exportation to build up economy- however little is spent of people within the country, Lack of imports mean little in the way of social development. What is imported into the country is materials used for manufacturing (such as electrical and other machinery, oil and mineral fuels, optical and medical equipment, metal ores, plastics, organic chemicals)11 , rather than development of the countries people 's quality of life.

India relies heavily on foreign direct investment from transnational corporations setting up tertiary ndustries. However similarly to the Asian tigers such as Taiwan, as the TNC's give people within the country wages, the multiplier effect can begin. This results in better conditions, better standards of living and increased demands for higher wages and workers' rights, leading TNC's to move to other developing countries. This happened in Taiwan when Barbie manufactures decided to move to China.

China, India and Dubai are all within the third phase of NIC growth. The first phase starts with the Asian tigers (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) which xperienced an economic crisis in 1997, as a result of a collapse of their fast expanding economy. Does this map the trend for what will happen to the second and third phase in the future as a result of fast development? To conclude, there are many areas we could investigate In terms of which country is further ahead in the development race, and who will succeed to reach MEDC status.

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