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Fin111 Financial Markets and Economic Principles

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[pic] Financial Markets and Economic Principles (FIN111) Assignment Answer Template |Students: Please enter |Word count | | |your word count for this |I have read the Assignment Guide in the Subject Room and have applied the word count | | |assignment |principles to my work. | | |My word count for this assignment is | | | |5368 words | | | | | | Marker feedback Comment on overall performance: |For marker use only. | |Students begin your assignment answers on the following page. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

Begin your assignment answers from this point. Section A – Question 1 • Describe the operations of each company JB Hi If – Is an Australian owned and operated company established in 1974. Due to the success of the business model and the growing retail sector in July 2000 JB Hi Fi was purchased by private equity bankers and senior management with the strategy of taking the model nationally. With a strong sign of the success of the business in October 2003, JB Hi Fi was floated on the Australian Stock Exchange.

JB Hi Fi has proven to be one of Australia’s fastest growing and largest retailers of home entertainment. Looking to build on the successful model and expand their operations in July 2004, JB Hi Fi bought the Clive Anthony chain of retail stores who competed in the same retail space. Harvey Norman – Is an Australian based retail provider of electrical, furniture, computer, entertainment and home goods. They have over 230 stores in Australia and abroad in countries including New Zealand, Slovenia, Ireland, Malaysia, Croatia and Singapore.

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Harvey Norman has implemented a unique strategy to the Australian retail market through their operating structure, in that each store department is operated by a separate franchise. Therefore these superstores are a combination of more than one business with each franchisee (computer, bedding, electrical) contributing to the gross revenue of Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd. This is achieved through their individual lease payment and a percentage of their sales. The individual departments have their own checkouts for its products and warehouse space is shared by the separate franchisees.

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is also a franchisor of other well known retail chains including Domayne, Joyce Mayne and others. • Consider the key factors that may affect the performance and the share price of the companies in the short and long term Given the fact both companies are competitors in the retail sector, key factors affecting their performance will be quite similar. They both heavily rely on the consumption of the “Household Sector”, this helps drives revenue through their operations. A concern therefore would be given the challenging economic times there is a decrease in domestic spending.

With households adversely increasing their savings as anxiety over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe escalates and general unease in regards to the global economy. This is also reflected through the “Business Cycle” as it is my belief we are currently within a “Contraction to trough” period which is reflective of a decline in retail sales. This decline has been seen nationwide through the whole retail sector as organisations battle to lower prices to remain competitive when demand isn’t strong and still attempt to retain a profit.

Some retailers have opted for longer trading hours and there is also concern over the moving trend towards internet shopping. JB Hi Fi currently have a strong focus on online shopping which has helped them maintain consistent sales results. Harvey Norman have moved to online shopping only in July of 2011, and has big ambitions with Gerry Harvey stating “I’ve told my team I want them to turn over $100 million within 2-3 years and then take it to $1billon within 5-10 years”. The decline is also reflected in the ABS August Key Figures report for monthly turnover within the retail sector which saw department stores post a -0. % fall in July to August 2011. Also a long term concern for both companies would be that if global equity markets do recover and inflation rises that will lead to a rise in interest rates which would further affect the Household sector through their discretionary spending. The fluctuations of the Australian dollar will impact both companies as the stronger Australian dollar lowers the prices both enterprises can charge consumers. Increasingly consumers are buying electronics online both domestically and international, with the resilient dollar giving them an incentive to shop abroad. Question 2 ) JB Hi-Fi and its network of retail stores is an intermediary. They are an intermediary between the large electronic manufacturers (Sony, Samsung, Panasonic) whose products are sold in store and the general consumer in the household sector. The large manufactures are able to meet the order demands of the organisation and JB Hi-FI in return supplies the broad market with the products. The consumer is provided with a product at a competitive price and JB Hi Fi earns a margin on the product for the service. 2) JB Hi-Fi also uses an additional intermediary to increase their exposure in the sector.

They have purchased Clive Anthony which was another established retail electrical chain. They own Clive Anthony however it continues to operate under its original trading name. All revenue is attributed to the JB Hi FI Limited organisation. 3) Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is well known for using a number of intermediaries within their own organisation. They have fragmented each department (bedding, electrical, computer) of their organisation to be an individual franchise or “intermediary”. With each franchisee contributing to the gross revenue of Harvey Norman Holdings Limited.

This provides each department the ability to specialise and deliver expert service to their consumers. Other financial intermediaries Harvey Norman would include its acquired retails chain Clive Peter’s and the number of overseas retail operations it owns which contribute to its net profit. Question 3 Question 3: Impact of monetary policy Justify the Reserve Bank’s decision on interest rates announced on 4 October 2011 • The factors that influenced the Reserve Bank’s decision and the likely impacts on the domestic economy The Reserve Bank nominated on the 4th of October to keep interested rates on hold for the 10th straight meeting.

The factors influencing this decision were concern over global financial markets and fears world economies may be sent into global recession. Previously during the Aug-Sep meetings there had been a deteriation in the markets and between Sep-Oct meetings that had been a further substantial deteriation of global markets. The RBA acknowledged that domestic growth would weaken in the coming quarters. Europe’s sovereign debt issues are a major concern to the RBA and a contributing factor to rates remaining on hold. It has caused major volatility to global markets, with growing uncertainty in regards to a solution and its impact on banks in Europe.

It is also affecting the outlook for Global Economic growth. The RBA will continue to assess market developments as well as the general indicators it follows including economy and inflation data. A benefit for the domestic economy is the RBA stated it had a bias to easing and that a rate cut could occur if September Quarter CPI data due on October 26 showed a moderation in prices • The impact on the share market as a whole and the share price of your chosen companies The immediate impact on the share market following the RBA’s decision was negative. The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0. % or 24. 9 points to 3872. 1 points, with the All Ordinaries down 0. 6% or 25. 1 points to 3935. 6. Also the Australian dollar slumped to a 13-month low of $94. 6 US cents. Despite an optimistic start to trading on the day with the market overcoming a negative lead from the US, the RBA’s decision had plunged the markets back into negative territory. JB Hi-Fi was down 60 cents to $14. 30 Not a substantial impact to HVN which was up 2cents from the close the previous day. • Whether the impact on the share market as a whole differed from the impact on your chosen companies

The negative impact of the decision by the RBA was shared by both the market itself and the individual holdings of JB Hi Fi Limited and Harvey Norman Holdings Limited. The decision had a significant impact on the performance of consumer exposed stocks such as JB HI FI and Harvey Norman. Question 4 JB HI FI posted its first profit slide since the stock floated in 2003. There were some contributing factors to this performance including a restructure of its Clive Anthony’s stores and a negative sales growth for July. JB Hi-Fi reported on August 8th 2011 that full year net profit fell 7. 5% to $109. 7 million on sales of $2. 6 billion, up 8. 3%. The slip has been attributed to the $24. 7 million in costs to restructure its Clive Anthony stores. Annual comparable sales fell 1. 2% Despite the daunting outlook for the retail sector JB Hi FI have stated they expect another solid group sales performance for this financial year, with full year sales to rise 8% to 3. 2billion. JB Hi FI is expecting that the Christmas period will be successful also timing with a number of new product releases. However due to the profit results and weak July sales on August 9th JB Hi-Fi shares closed down 35 cents at $14. 00 Harvey Norman announced a net profit after tax of $252. 6 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2011, which is up 9% on the 2010 financial year. These results were released in its 2011 annual report. The franchises within the organisation continued to provide the stability in the overall performance of the group. Owner Gerry Harvey stated “we have a strong balance sheet underpinned by a $2. 04 billion property portfolio and generate strong free net cash flows from our franchising operations segment” Total revenue for the year was $2. 7 billion, which has increased from the 2010 figure of $2. 45 billion according to the results statement.

Harvey Norman experienced an increase in consumer transactions despite revenue being down, this was caused by the strong Australian dollar reducing prices on imported goods. Despite the retail sector weakening in reflection of global markets Harvey Norman franchisees have experienced strong customer traffic and transactions. Also stronger results generated by retail operations in Singapore, Malaysia and Slovenia have increased profitability by $4. 65 million before tax collectively compared to the previous year. Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, the outlook the retail, franchise and property system of the company remains positive.

An important addition to the business moving forward in the first half of 2012 financial year will be the launching of our e-commerce site for Harvey Norman. Harvey Norman states they are confident there online transactional strategy will produce incremental dollars to the existing channel. Harvey Norman closed 1cent higher after releasing its annual report at $2. 15 on August 29th. Question 5 • Explain the correlation of returns from the asset classes - Cash- Is looking to be a stable and reliable asset class in the 2011 calendar year. It will provide necessary stability to investor’s profiles.

However will remain relatively unattractive reflecting low interest rates. Some important considerations for the RBA in determining any movement in monetary policy is the strength of the Australian dollar relative to trading partners, in particular the US. It is anticipated the RBA will lift the cash rate to 5% before the end of the year Fixed Interest – Will provide stability with a higher yield than cash given there is an element of risk. Savvy investors will look to this sector as global equities remain volatile and fixed interest provides the ability to stabilise returns.

Large parts of the credit market in particular Australian credit offer reasonable value especially if the global growth outlook commences an incline. Equity – Global equity markets outlook remains extremely volatile. This outlook is reinforced by the RBA’s recent decisions to keep interest rates on hold and even suggest they may be deducted in the future. The cause for concern has moved on from the Sub Prime Crisis of 2008 and is now centred on government sovereign debt in the US and particularly in Europe and the PIGGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain).

Of major concern is whether Greece will default on its loans and the potential impact on world markets. This is playing out at the moment with recent developments within the EU with a bailout fund and more recently revision of the size of the fund. This has provided huge amounts of volatility in the market and it seems it will play out most of the year, with a potential default if not avoided of Greece in early 2012. There is plenty of value long term in equities currently with stocks undervalued however you must be prepared to accept volatility in the short to medium term.

Property – With improving international economic conditions, a local economy with good foundations and quality property managers achieving attractive terms on financing, prospects for high grade property investment remains attractive. Australian direct property will continue to perform well and prospects for the sector are high especially in commercial and industrial property. The retail sector could be a danger given the challenging times being experienced in the Australian consumer sector • Provide a forecast of which asset class you believe will provide the best returns in 2011

Due to global economic growth picking up in 2011 with various predictions at around 3. 5 – 4% driven largely by emerging economies, this provides opportunities in the equities sector. Market volatility is likely to continue due to Sovereign debt concerns in Europe and the impact of potential further quantitative easing in the United States. There is concern about equity markets seemingly drifting sideways over the past 12 months, however global share markets have recorded strong gains The economic outlook is likely to be supportive for equities in 2011, while there will be areas of concern.

The slowly improving economic environment and a potential solution to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe should see companies begin to expand by borrowing. After experiencing a significant correction in 2010, equities are well positioned to post strong gains in 2011. Shares are good value and continuing economic recovery will contribute to further gains in profit. Question 6 Question 6: Influences on share prices Provide a graph showing both companies daily share price and the All Ordinaries index over the four week tracking period [pic] [pic] Explain the performance of the two companies over the four week period.

In your explanation consider: • The impact of any significant events or unexpected announcements JB Hi Fi - The announcement of Apple’s launch of its latest handset the iPhone 4s is hoped to have a significant impact on sales and foot traffic through its retail stores. - JB Hi-Fi held its annual general meeting on the 12th of October, it stated total sales were up 6. 6% compared with the previous corresponding period. The timing of this news to the market had investors responding positively with 3. 09% increase for the day with a close at $14. 36 Harvey Norman Holdings Limited There is direct concern for Harvey Norman over debt issues within Europe as they hold operations in Ireland which was the first country in the European Union to ask for a bailout. Harvey Norman’s stores there made a trading loss of $38. 59 million for the 2010-11 financial year, with the board “committed to Ireland for the long term” - Harvey Norman have also responded to the online retail sector threat by launching a new e-commerce site in early October - Harvey Norman released its annual report on the 29th of September, revealing a 9% rise in 2011 full-year net profit to $252. 3 million Whether the performances have been similar or different The performance of Harvey Norman has been quite flat with quite limited movement of the stock over the reporting period. They released their annual report with a rise in profits but investors did not respond with any significant movements. JB Hi-Fi hit a low of $13. 87 for the reporting period on the 11th of October as anxiety hit over the release of information from its annual general meeting. The news and results provided were positive and the stock reacted positively reaching close to the peak of the reporting period on the 14th of October closing at $15. 0 • How the companies performed in relation to the All Ordinaries Index There has been limited volatility seen in regards to both JB Hi-FI and Harvey Norman. The reasons for this would be they both have core business which is based in the retail household consumer sector. The All Ordinaries which is based on the movements of the top 500 Australian companies has a much wider exposure to sectors. It is for this reason there has been significantly more volatility on the All Ordinaries as it has been exposed to the market’s recent concerns over the European Sovereign debt crisis. Whether the shares would be considered growth or defensive Both these companies’ shares would be considered cyclical stocks, where sales and earnings are affected by economic or industry cycle They would therefore be considered growth shares. • Your view with justification on whether the companies are a buy, sell or hold JB Hi-Fi (HOLD) – The stock is vulnerable to a decrease in discretionary spending in regards to its electronic goods and also the impact of the volatile Australian dollar. However the organisation is in a growth period with a number of new stores opening in a strategic move.

The company has been a popular stock and has proven to be quite resilient, trading strongly through the last few turbulent years and also distributes a strong yield. It is in a good position to see through the current wave of volatility. Harvey Norman (HOLD) – The strength of the Australian dollar has seen a rise in internet commerce. Harvey Norman is launching a centralised online website to respond to this growing trend. International holdings have been performing well and there are talks of a possible expansion into the UK.

The stock has been proven to be relatively resilient with a reasonable dividend and is adapting to a changing market by looking at opportunities online and abroad, for these reasons the recommendation would be to hold. Section B Question 1 Section B - Question 1 Identify and discuss four advantages for AWPL of establishing a factory in New Zealand • Operating costs – Establishing a new factory in New Zealand will save AWPL $A2 million per annum which is a significant savings long term. These additional funds can be used to reduce debt or spent on further product development or research Increase production – With the establishment of the New Zealand facility AWPL will be able to meet the demands of their current production and collectively with its Melbourne location the demands of the new proposed contract in the US. This will add a projected 30% to sales growth. • Save $A 3 million – Establishing the new location at New Zealand would mean the fire upgrade to the current location at Devonport would no longer be necessary and the funds will be used to support the long term functionality and growth of the business as opposed to a maintenance cost Brand Awareness – Currently AWPL provides production for Australia, UK, Germany and potentially the US. Having a location in New Zealand will promote the brand and create awareness which may lead to business opportunities through production in their domestic sector in the future Also four major funding and/or business constraints that AWPL needs to consider when deciding whether to establish a new factory in New Zealand or upgrade and expand the existing factory in Melbourne Production concerns – Due consideration needs to be made to legitimate concerns over AWPL ability to meet the demand of current production requirements during construction of a new factory in New Zealand. Meeting these demands are imperative to the survival of the business • $1 million payout – Will need to be paid due to the retrenchments of the employees at the Devonport factory, this is a considerable amount of capital and needs to be taken into consideration • Establishment costs – AWPL have determined that the establishment costs of the New Zealand venture are high with additional costs that do not exist in Australia Debt Funding – All the proposed developments require capital of $A10 million, AWPL do not have the liquidity to cover this outlay and will need to look at financing options. Their lenders at the moment already have concerns over their current level of gearing, so they will need to look at all their options. Question 2 a) Is AWPL eligible for listing on the ASX given its current structure and financial position? AWPL is not able to list on the ASX given its current structure, as it does not currently meet the requirements of the ASX listing rules. In particular condition 7 which states “ An entity must satisfy either a) or (b)” a) There must be at least 500 holders each having a parcel of the main class of securities with a value of at least $2,000, excluding securities not acquired by those holders under a recent prospectus or Product Disclosure Statement b) Both of the following are satisfied • There must be at least 400 holders each having a parcel of the main class of securities with a value of at least $2,000, excluding securities not acquired by those holders under a recent prospectus or Product Disclosure Statement AWPL is unable to meet these requirements as it currently only has 40 shareholders ) Listed companies are required to comply with stringent obligations imposed on them by the ASX Listing Rules. Explain four obligations that AWPL would be required to fulfil if it was a listed company • Under Condition 3 of the ASX listing rules “ A prospectus or Product Disclosure Statement must be issued and lodged with ASIC. If ASX agrees, an information memorandum that complies with the information memorandum requirements of Appendix 1A will be sufficient instead of a prospectus or PDS. This ensures that potential investors have access to critical financial information about the organisation to make an informed decision to invest or not. 1. 2. 4 of the Profit Test states that the entity’s aggregated profit from continuing operations for the last 3 full financial years must have been at least $1 million. This is to ensure the organisation is successful and has the means necessary to warrant being listed on the ASX • 1. 2. 5A states that the entity must give ASX a statement from all directors confirming that they have made enquiries and nothing has come to their attention to suggest that the economic entity is not continuing to earn profit from continuing operations up to the date of application

This is to ensure the organisations admission is based on factual information and aims to confirm the integrity of the organisation and its intention not to commit any acts of fraud or deception • 1. 3. 5 The entity must give ASX each of the following a) Any accounts, together with any audit report or review: - for the last 3 full financial years (or shorter period if ASX agrees); and - if the last full financial year ended more than 8 months before the entity applied for admission, for the last half year (or longer period if available) from the end of the last full financial year

If the accounts have not been audited or reviewed, the entity must tell the ASX This ensures that there is full disclosure of financial information to the ASX and potential investors Question 3 a) Discuss three reasons why the bank would be reluctant to increase funding to AWPL at this time • Financial Markets – Due to the implications of financial markets over the last few years starting with the Mortgage Sub Prime crisis in the United States and more recently the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, lenders have become tighter with their lending practices.

They want extra security and having a signed contract confirming the commitment for production in the US confirms the need for additional funding • The bank already has expressed concern over the level of gearing the organisation holds at the moment so without evidence to support the need for expansion there will be hesitancy from the lender • There is also an element of risk involved as there is concern that if the upgrade and expansion plans are not handled effectively then production rates may be harmed which would ultimately mean AWPL would be unable to meet current order demands.

If that was to occur then the ability of AWPL to service its current debt commitments to the bank would be placed in jeopardy b) Jack is concerned that the New Zealand project will expose the shareholders of AWPL to a new financial risk (associated with borrowing funds to upgrade the Melbourne factory and to establish the New Zealand factory). Assume that the US contract is signed. Identify the new financial risk. Discuss the implications of the risk on debt repayment schedules and outline the steps AWPL might take to reduce the risk

Jack is concerned about AWPL ability to meet current production orders. The fear is that if establishment of the NZ factory and upgrade of the Melbourne location isn’t seamless it will affect the ability of the business to meet current demands and that of the new contract. This exposes the business and current shareholders to potential risk of defaulting on existing debt demands from their lender. AWPL may look at hedging this risk by looking at Business Risk Protection which would cover their expected income if they are unable to meet their demand for various reasons.

AWPL should also consider looking at alternate factory locations they can use at short notice if production is impacted for any reason Question 4 a) Identify and discuss three effects that an appreciating Australian dollar (AUD) would have on a decision by AWPL to move its manufacturing operations to New Zealand • An appreciating Australian dollar would be a concern for the core of AWPL business which is exports. If the Australian dollar rises a major implication is the impact on the terms of trade as exports become more expensive and imports become cheaper.

A likely result would be an increase in domestic spending on imports and reduced demand for exports in foreign countries. This would be a huge concern for the viability of AWPL’s international production orders. If there is a change in the current revenue streams than it may impact their ability to service their current debt and/or gain finance for expansion plans • Also an appreciation in the Australian dollar will mean AWPL’s exports will become more expensive and may result in them not being as competitive as other international competitors. The impact of this may be felt in loss of contracts, renegotiations and general cost cutting.

Severely impacting their ability to implement any expansions • These concerns will not only be felt by AWPL but by their shareholders and lenders. When approaching lenders about further debt funding an appreciating dollar and the potential negative impact on the business may very well be taken into due consideration before approval. b) Taking into account current economic conditions and financial market sentiment, identify and discuss two factors that could cause the AUD to move significantly above its current rate against the US dollar in the coming months One impact which could cause the AUD to move significantly above its current rate against the US dollar is the appetite for risk from foreign investors. With extreme volatility being experienced in the market currently and concern for the global economy the Australian dollar can be influence by the risk appetite of foreign investors. During the volatile times in the market we are experiencing currently there are heightened perceptions of risk which leads to a decline in the demand for riskier assets which promotes a move for investors to quality investments and an appreciation of reserve currencies such as the US dollar.

This can see the Australian dollar appreciated when markets sentiment is high and there is positive news about foreign and global development and depreciate on negative news. - An additional factor which may see a further increase of the AUD over the US dollar could be another round of Quantative Easing (QE3) from the United States. This involves the US Federal Reserve effectively prints more money injecting it into the economy The US government achieves this through purchases of bonds and places money into banks which then be loaned to the public.

This in turn eases lending constraints and money flows through too small to medium businesses. A consequence for the US is that the increase in the supply of their currency weakens the value and causes further appreciation of the Australian dollar Question 5 - A) Discuss the outlook for global economic growth in 2011. Support your answer with a percentage forecast for global growth International recovery after the Great Financial Crisis has been uneven with markets seemingly moving sideways recently. Risks globally remain high with world economies continuing to recover from its effects.

Financial conditions have improved through corporate earnings and financial market volatility has moderated, notwithstanding ongoing concerns over European Sovereign debt and the European Union ability to contain the crisis. The forecast for advanced economies is to continue to consolidate, where as growth in emerging markets is anticipated to deliver higher levels of growth and returns. Therefore in accordance the global economy is widely predicted to grow over 4% in 2011 down from 5% growth in 2010. Although traction has been made global economic recovery also remains vulnerable and a clear resolution to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe ill provide markets with strong sentiment and incentive to return to the equities market. Also failure for the US to develop a viable solution to the unsustainable US Fiscal position also poses a threat to the progress of global recovery - (B) Each of the countries below has a significant influence on global growth. Briefly comment on each country’s outlook for economic growth in 2011 Support your answer with a percentage forecast for each country’s economic growth i) USA The forecast for the United States is that their economy will grow between 3. -4% in 2011. This is an increase from the 3% growth recorded in the 2010 calendar year. The basis of this will be driven from growth in the consumer and business spending and personal consumption expenditure (PCE), an increase in consumer spending. PCE is adding between 0. 7% and 2% to overall US growth has increased for five consecutive quarters. Concerns for the US are European Sovereign Debt, budget concerns at all levels of government and falling house prices. These effects could impact and lead to a slower US recovery. ii) China

Due to the unprecedented growth of China, tighter monetary policy was necessary to reign in growth which is still projected to be close to 9% in 2011. Inflation is a constant concern and will increase over the calendar year. It is china’s greatest concern and most pressing policy issue, their ability to contain this effectively will determine their sustained growth. The present account surplus is set to fall to 4. 5% of GDP, which is a reflection of a decline in export growth and higher commodity prices While high commodity prices pose risks they are unlikely to dent growth.

Currency appreciation will continue at a gradual pace as reserves accumulate iii) Japan In March 2011 the Great East Japan Earthquake was the strongest ever recorded in Japan and triggered a tsunami which severely damaged the country and was the impact was felt on world equity markets. A preliminary report by the government estimated damage at between 3. 3-5. 2% of 2010 GDP There are serious concerns about Japans ability to recover from such a traumatic natural disaster. The timing and strength of an economic recovery is difficult to forecast.

The growing uncertainty about the Japanese recovery, compounded by the ongoing nuclear situation and rising oil prices are adding to the difficulty of the situation. However Japan has experienced natural disasters before and the sentiment from other advanced nations is there will be a rebound in economy as reconstruction spending picks up. Such a pattern will see real GDP growth to 0. 8% in 2011 Bibliography Chris Zappone April 27 SMH - Harvey – Move online. http://www. smh. com. au/business/harvey-norman-reveals-online-move-20110427-1dvl9. html

Pip Freebairn – Australian Financial Review – 4th October RBA holds rates but hints door open for cut http://www. afr. com/p/national/rba_holds_rates_but_hints_door_open_5JEhJP8jKehLd5SsNxQREL Joanna Heath – Australian Financial Review – 4th October Shares fall after RBA rates decision http://www. afr. com/p/markets/shares_fall_after_rba_rates_decision_gYLoKCrItyz0zl5JXVUUQM Eli Greenbalt – August 9th High Flying JB Hi FI experiences the lows of a struggling sector http://www. smh. com. au/business/highflying-jb-hifi-experiences-the-lows-of-a-struggling-sector-20110808-1ij7k. tml Harvey Norman Annual Report http://www. harveynormanholdings. com. au/pdf_files/2011_Annual_Report. pdf Shane Oliver Insights – Review of 2010 and outlook for 2011 http://www. adviservoice. com/2010/12/review-of-2010-and-outlook-for-2011/ David Ramli & Ben Woodhead – Australian Financial Review October 5th Wither retail as Apple touts iPhone 4s http://www. afr. com/p/business/technology/whither_retail_as_apple_touts_iphone_FzmXGsKsIEA3iYW45oG21M Joanna Heath – Australian Financial Review 24 September 2011 Europe’s troubles hit home http://www. fr. com/p/markets/europe_troubles_hit_home_FTVWCTnHmtNXJ90oaRoTsI RBA - The Exchange rate and the Reserve Bank’s Role in the Foreign Exchange Market http://www. rba. gov. au/mkt-operations/foreign-exchg-mkt. html Chris Caton – 2 Feb 2011 The Aussie Dollar- Where to from here? BT Insights http://www. bt. com. au/bt-market-insights/bt-latest-updates/2011/02-february/201102-australian-dollar. asp Budget Strategy and Outlook 2011-12 http://www. budget. gov. au/2011-12/content/bp1/html/bp1_bst2-01. htm IB Times Staff Reporter - US Economic Outlook 2011

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