Book Review: Supercrunchers
We re likely to discount discomforting evidence and focus Instead on evidence that supports our preexisting beliefs. Reason 3: Most people are overconfident while they make prediction to the future while some people tend to be undercoating and slow to change In the face of new evidence. And overconfidence becomes severe when the problems become more complicated. 2. The author suggests that equations should not be without some kind of "over ride" capability. What is the "over ride" capability? Why does the author suggest this is necessary?
Do you agree or disagree with this. Answers: "Over ride" capability refers to some kind of discretionary escape hatch some way for a human to override the prediction of the formula. Just like the rejection area of hypothesis test. It is necessary because a statistical procedure cannot estimate the causal impact of rare events because there simply aren't enough data concerning them to make a credible estimate. The rarity of the event doesn't mean that it will not have a big impact when the event does in fact occur.
It Just means that statistical formulas will not be able to future the impact. In such case, a "over ride" capability is needed. I agree with this point because it is common in the day to day life. We need to find out when does the statistic way loose effectiveness. Every method has its own drawback; we need to figure out a systematic way to "automatically' reflect the time that a statistic method fails. 3. The author puts forward that if one concludes that equations are in fact better than experts, then one must ask the question of where experts fit Into the process of prediction.
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Explain the place for experts In a world where predictions are made by equations. Answers: In a word, the most Important thing that is left to human experts Is to use our minds and our intuition to guess at what variables should and should not be Included in statistical analysis. A statistical regression can tell us the weights to place upon various factors. Human By Ranchers Chem. Email: rc2405@nyu. Deed experts, however, are crucially needed to generate the hypotheses about what causes what.
The regressions can test whether there Is a causal effect and estimate the size f the causal impact, but somebody needs to specify the test itself. In addition, humans are crucial not only in deciding what to test, but also in collecting and. At times, creating the data. Reason 2: Once we form a mistaken belief about something, we tend to cling to it. We are likely to discount discomforting evidence and focus instead on evidence that to change in the face of new evidence. And overconfidence becomes severe when the than experts, then one must ask the question of where experts fit into the process of reduction.
Explain the place for experts in a world where predictions are made by equations. Answers: In a word, the most important thing that is left to human experts is to use our minds and our intuition to guess at what variables should and should not be included in statistical analysis. A statistical regression can tell us the weights what. The regressions can test whether there is a causal effect and estimate the size humans are crucial not only in deciding what to test, but also in collecting and, at
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