Business Forecasting Group Project

Please check the spreadsheets in "surreptitiousness" to see the group you belong to. Each group must select one person to submit the project. Each group should start their project cooperation as soon as practical.

3. Each group must submit one hard copy of the project and one online (soft) copy.

4. The online submission deadline is 1 1 :pm, Thursday, 5/ June/2014. Each group MUST submit the online copy to Turning on the course Blackboard. A link to the project submission will be available in Week 13. Only one member of the group should make the submission - that person must be nominated on the Group Cover Sheet.

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5. Each group MUST also submit a hard copy to your tutor at the beginning of your Week 13 tutorial.

6. For both online and hard-copy submission, the project Cover Sheet must be properly filled, which includes the class number, group number, names and student numbers of the group members.

7. A late-submission penalty of 20% will apply for each 24 hours late. This applies to both the hard copy and the soft copy submissions.

8. For hard-copy submission, DO NOT use plastic sheets or binders. Simply staple the pages together. Do not submit loose-leaf sheets of paper.

9. Each student MUST complete a confidential online self and peer assessment ably 1. 59 pm, Tuesday, 10/June/2014. Details about this teamwork assessment will be announced shortly. No marks will be awarded for this teamwork component, which is worth 3%, if the self and peer assessment is not completed by the deadline.

10. All submissions will be checked for plagiarism. The University regards plagiarism as a form of academic misconduct, and has very strict rules regarding plagiarism. Where it can be established that individual students are responsible for the plagiarism, those individual students will be penalized.

However, where it is Judged that the plagiarism should have been clear to the other group members, the penalty will apply to all members of the group.

THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES School of Economics ECONOMIC/5248, Business Forecasting, 2014

SSL Course Project Group cover sense

Check-list

1 . Choose one member to submit the project: one soft-copy to be submitted online and one hard-copy to be submitted to your tutor.

2. Class number, group number, all names and student numbers of the group must be filled in on this Cover Sheet.

3. Each group member must complete the online self and peer assessment.

Marks on teamwork will be zero if this assessment is not completed by the deadline.

Details about the teamwork assessment will be announced shortly (see Teamwork Assessment section at the end of this document).

1 . (person for submission) 2. 3. 4. Student No. ECONOMIC Course Project Description Suppose that you work for Releasers (a consulting firm specialized in real estate market). Standing at the end of December 2009, you are assigned the task of analyzing the monthly series on the building approvals of New South Wales (in the ATA file buildingApprovals2009Dec. L's).

Your client, an international investment fund, is considering the strategies of its future investment in New South Wales real estate market. In particular, your client is interested in the answers to the following questions. A) What are the main features of the historical building approvals Lully/1983 to December/2009)? B) If the main historical features remain unchanged, what will the future approvals Unary/2010 to December/2011) look like? Your task is to analyses the data and provide answers to the above questions.

While our client does not use any technical Jargon, you realist that the answer to Part (a) requires the construction of a proper econometric model for the historical building approvals, which will in turn produce the answer to Part (b). Your report should have four sections. The "Executive Summary' section should contain a summary of your answers and conclusions to the client's questions. In the "Main Report" section, you should report how you analyses the data, build and check the model, and produce the answers and conclusions. This section Justifies the contents of "Executive Summary'.

In the "Further Issues" section, you should comment on ten Kelly controlling AT your results I en "Append I a w Stetson snouts hold the set of Views commands used in your analysis. Further you do want to impress your client by delivering a nicely presented report. Hints Total length of your completed project, including all discussions, tables, graphs, Views commands, and the cover page, should not exceed 12 pages. The marks are distributed as: 1 mark for Executive Summary, 11 marks for Main Report, 1 mark for Further Issues, and 1 mark for Appendix and overall presentation.

Use the principles/models/techniques up to the end of BE-09 and the end of Chapter 10 of the textbook (inclusive). The project description is deliberately brief, providing some room for you to demonstrate your grasp of the learned material. At minimum, a thorough analysis in the framework of the classical decomposition is expected. The data file, buildingApprovals2009Dec. XSL, has two columns: Date and Approvals. Note that Approvals are measured as the number of building approvals in New South Wales, and can be treated as real numbers (I. E. They are not restricted to integers).

A template Views file, assign_temp. Pre, is provided, which contains commands for reading data in Views, generating time index and seasonal dummies. To carry out the computation of the project, it may be helpful to consult and borrow from the examples in the lectures (BE-09 in particular). Use time polynomials up to the third order (at most) to model trend if any. Use monthly dummy variables to model seasonality if any. Pay attention to the CAB and PACE of the cyclical component. Note that pure AR models, if suitable, are easier to estimate and analyses than MA or ARM models.

In particular, the stability analysis for AR models can be done in Views. Use SIC (or IAC) to select your preferred model. Testing for seasonality can be done in Views by the commands equation keen . L's y c freeze keen . Wald AFC(11 where time trend (if any) or AR terms may also be included at the end of the equation. You may directly model Approvals (without logarithm). The Course Project provides an environment for students to cooperate with one another to bring out the best of a group. Students in a group are expected to make effective and positive contributions to the project.

More specifically, students are expected to (and certainly expect their team members to) Teamwork Assessment (3 marks) a) contribute positively to task planning and coordination; b) help to raise the team morale; c) attend meetings punctually and be well prepared; d) communicate/discuss with team members constructively; e) share ideas generously and be able to build on other's ideas; f) resolve disagreements with team members respectfully; g) complete allocated tasks with quality and in time; h) provide support and help to team members; ) demonstrate good knowledge and skills for the project.

At the completion of this project, each student is required to give the following confidential assessment for each teammate (including herself/himself) online: Please rate this person's overall contribution to the project. Nil; 1 = very low; 2 = low; 3 = satisfactory; 4 = high; 5 = very high) Your assessment should be based on the criteria in the list a)-I) above. Each student, who completed this assessment, will receive a Teamwork mark that is a summary of the self and peer assessment. The details for this online assessment will be announced shortly.

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