Sub Saharan Africa Food Insecurity Environmental Sciences Essay

An Integrated Assessment and Policy Needs Identification Abstract The survey aims to supply in-depth analysis of nutrient security in SSA in a changing clime, by incorporating socio-economic factors into scenario analysis. Furthermore, particular accent will be placed on the regional security issues. The first aim is of the research is to measure the impact of clime alteration on nutrient security, while the 2nd purpose is to place the key policy needs that should be considered in version schemes. Climate alteration scenarios will be simulated utilizing HadCM3 theoretical account. Two scenarios will be examined: `` worst instance '' ( 1 % CO2 addition per annum ) and `` best instance ' ( 0.5 % CO2 addition per annum ) . The projections of agricultural productiveness will be assessed with IMAGE or AEZ theoretical accounts. Once the land-use and harvest simulation theoretical accounts are run, the estimated alteration of crop-yields will be fed into IMPACT and BLS theoretical accounts in order to measure the impact of clime alteration on nutrient security and hazard of hungriness. The interaction between the two theoretical accounts will capture the cross-cutting drivers for nutrient insecurity in the part. As a concluding measure, the survey will supply socio-economic and political tendencies analysis with chief methods: literature reappraisal, informations aggregation and analysis, arrested development analysis. The overall result of the survey will be designation of the policy needs that rise consciousness, with pertinence in explicating version schemes. Keywords: agribusiness, clime alteration, estimable general equilibrium, nutrient security, integrated appraisal, malnutrition, partial equilibrium, hazard of hungriness, sub-Saharan Africa.1. Introduction The impact of clime alteration on nutrient security is important for developing states. Sub-Saharan Africa ( SSA ) is one of the most vulnerable parts in the universe, due to the high degrees of nutrient insecurity as a consequence of socio-economic, political and environmental force per unit areas. Harmonizing to FAO/ WFP 2010 study 1 SSA is on the 2nd topographic point ( after Asia ) in the universe in footings of figure of ill-fed people ( 239 million people ) . However, on the first topographic point in footings of per centum undernourished of the entire population ( 30 % ill-fed ) . Recent projections for future clime alteration in SSA dismay that the land with suitableness for harvest cultivation will worsen and the land with wet emphasis will increase ( e.g. Fischer, 2005 ; FAO, 2009 ) . At the same clip, the part is characterized with agriculture-driven economic system, whereas the low GDP and weak

institutional constructions are barriers for technological development of the agricultural sector. 2. Problem Statement and Aim of the Study Recently, research workers have produced a figure of of import surveies analyzing the impact of clime alteration on harvests productiveness ( e.g. Betts, 2005 ; Challinor 2009 ) and agricultural sector ( e.g. Parry, 2004 ; Fischer, 2005 ) . Those documents present assorted patterning models for regional and planetary appraisal of the impact of clime alteration on agribusiness and the hazard of hungriness. Furthermore, several surveies examine SSA regional scenarios for future tendencies of nutrient demand ( based on the future population and income projections ) , nutrient supply ( based on agricultural productiveness and trade ) , land usage displacements and future clime conditions ( e.g. AIACC, 2006 ; Challinor, 2011 ) . However, most surveies capture chiefly harvest production ( agricultural sector ) and pay small attending to the whole nutrient system, i.e. nutrient handiness, nutrient entree and nutrient use ( Ingram, 2005 ) . Therefore, in order to supply overall policy deductions for accomplishing nutrient security in a changing clime, we should see the drivers for nutrient insecurity in SSA, such as poorness, deficiency of instruction, hapless market entree, unemployment, failures in belongings rights ( Scholes and Biggs, 2004 ; Ingram, 2005 ) . 1 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010, FAO/ WFP Following the logic of the above statements, this survey aims to supply in-depth analysis of nutrient security in SSA in a changing clime, by incorporating socioeconomics factors into scenario analysis. Furthermore, particular accent will be placed on the regional security issues, such as migration and urbanisation, delicate provinces and struggles, refugee crises, HIV/ AIDS. 3. Aims of the Study and Research Questions The survey will near two chief issues. The first aim is to measure the impact of clime alteration on nutrient security. In this regard the research paper will discourse the undermentioned inquiries: - What is the environmental position and future clime conditions in SSA? - Which are the cardinal socio-economic force per unit areas in SSA that should be integrated in the appraisal of clime alteration impact on nutrient security? - What is the impact of clime alteration on nutrient insecurity and hungriness in SSA ( assessed by incorporating future tendencies of socio-economic conditions ) ? The 2nd aim is to place the key policy needs that should be considered in version schemes. In this context, the following set of research inquiries is: - What are the barriers and chances for version in SSA? -Which are the policy needs for nutrient security in the altering clime of SSA? -Which socio-economic and political conditions should be addressed in clime alteration - nutrient security policy models, based on the projections of future tendencies? 4. Scientific Methods n order to turn to the first set of research inquiries ( first aim ) , I will utilize he following research methods and instruments. 4.1. Climate Variability and Climate Change in SSA

& gt ; Climate variableness - ( I ) calculation of indices for variableness in monthly lower limit and maximal temperature ; monthly rainfall ; ( two ) linear graphs for one-year alterations ; ( three ) arrested development analysis of long term trends2. & gt ; Climate alteration scenarios Tools and method: General Circulation Models utilizing statistical downscaling Model: HadCM3 ( coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation theoretical account ) Datas: extracted from IPCC 2002 Period: 1961-1990 ; 2010-2039 ; 2040-2069 ; 2070-2099 Base-line clime: 1961-1990 ( Fischer, 2005 ) Scenarios: SRES A1F1 and A2 ( `` worst instance '' = 1 % CO2 addition per annum ; 855

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ppm ) and SRES B1 and A1T ( `` best instance ' = 0.5 % CO2 addition per annum ; 560 ppm ) ( e.g. Fisher, 2005 ; AIACC, 2006 ) .The comparing between the two scenarios will turn to the uncertainties3. End product: projected degrees of future CO2 ; precipitation ; temperature The end product from HadCM3 will be fed as an input in IMAGE theoretical account or AEZ theoretical account. Both theoretical accounts provide land-use displacements and harvests fertilisation effects from the informations

obtained with HadCM3. 4.2. Food Security Impact Assessment Once the land-use and harvest simulation theoretical accounts are run, the estimated alteration of crop-yields will be fed into IMPACT ( partial-equilibrium theoretical account ) and BLS ( general equilibrium theoretical account ) in order to measure the impact of clime alteration on nutrient security and hazard of hungriness. The interaction between the two theoretical accounts is necessary to capture the drivers for nutrient insecurity in the part. Table 1. outlines how the two theoretical accounts correspond to the socio-economic force per unit areas in the clime alteration - nutrient security impact appraisal analysis. 2, 3 Methodology used by James Adejuwon, 2006. A Concluding Report Submitted to Appraisals of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change ( AIACC ) , Project No. AF 23 Table 1. Models specification IMPACT Model BLS Model Partial-equilibrium theoretical account with focal point on agricultural sector, H2O, nutrient supply and demand. It tends to hold more item than genral equlibium theoretical accounts General equlibrium theoretical accounts take into history the linkages between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. The theoretical account represents all economic sectors with through empirical observation estimated parametric quantities. States are linked through trade, universe market monetary values and financies Agricultural productiveness ( exogenic ) Agricultural productiveness and clime ( exogenic ) & gt ; agricultural production and trade ( edogenous ) & gt ; agricultural production and trade ( edogenous ) & gt ; GDP ( exogenic ) ; monetary values and trade ( endogenous ) & gt ; GDP, monetary values and trade ( endogenous ) Allows calculation of per capita KCAL, in peculiar kid malnutrition. Allows calculation of figure of people at hazard of hungriness as a portion of undernourished in the entire population. The per centum of malnourished kids is a map of: mean per capita Calorie ingestion, female secondary instruction, the quality of maternal and child attention, wellness and sanitation. Thus the theoretical account gaining control broad assortment of societal issues. The estimations are based on: 1 ) SRES scenarios projected income and population degrees and their distribution ; 2 ) ratio of the mean national nutrient supply ( including imports ) Population and GDP ( exogenic ) Population ( exogenic ) ; GDP ( endogenous ) Population projections captures rural-urban kineticss There are regional group theoretical accounts wich capture the economic constructions of a figure of African states by grouping them into: oil exporters, low income nutrient importers and exporters, average income nutrient importers and exporters. 3.2. nutrient entree ( affordability - income, monetary values ; allotment ) 3.3. nutrient use ( nutrition ) 4. Socio-economic factors ( population, GDP ) 1.Model type 3. Food systems constituents captured by the theoretical accounts ( endogenous and exogenic variables ) : 3.1.food handiness ( agricultural production, trade, imports ) 2. Climate related drivers The appraisal will be built on multiple plot line attack ( e.g. Fisher, 2005 ) : Figure 1. Multiple storyline attack 4.3. Socio-economic and political force per unit areas analysis - the chief activities which will be conducted are: literature reappraisal, informations aggregation and analysis, arrested development analysis. & gt ; Economic construction of the SSA states - descriptive analysis will be provided & gt ; Population projections in SSA - the survey will show current demographic tendencies and future projections, based on informations extracted from IIASA. The particular accent will be on migration and urbanisation, HIV/ AIDS, every bit good as educational degrees. Climate alteration induced migration will be discussed. This analysis is closely linked to climate alteration - nutrient security analytical model, since demographic tendencies are strongly correlated with environment and nutrient security. & gt ; Income distribution and nutrient demand trends - income degrees change the consumers ' penchants for nutrient. As good income distribution and inequalities between states have important impact on nutrient demand ( e.g. Cirera and Masset, 2010 ) . Therefore this issue will be addressed, taking into consideration the findings of this survey every bit good as Gini coefficients for the part. & gt ; Poverty degrees and unemployment tendencies - descriptive analysis & gt ; Political stableness - descriptive analysis on past and present struggles ; hazards of new eruptions ; refugee crisis & gt ; Property rights - descriptive analysis of rural economic conditions & gt ; Poor market entree - descriptive analysis of market engagement Current clime variableness, nutrient security and socioeconomic conditions Socio-economic development and nutrient security with clime variableness ( no alteration ) - baseline simulation Socio-economic development and nutrient security with clime alteration ( `` best instance '' scenario ) Socio-economic development and nutrient security with clime alteration ( `` worst instance '' scenario ) 5. Significance of the survey The chief parts of this thesis are expected to be: - Designation of relevant clime variables, tendencies and projections ( temperature, precipitation, turning season, land-use alterations ) and appraisal of clime alteration impact on harvest outputs - Designation of the cardinal socio-economic factors in the analysis of the impact of clime alteration on nutrient security in the context of SSA - Appraisal of the impact of clime alteration on nutrient security utilizing partialequilibrium and general equilibrium theoretical accounts - Projection and spacial distribution of people at hazard of hungriness in SSA - Appraisal of the socio-economic and political tendencies, closely related to nutrient security and clime alteration - Designation of barriers and chances for version - Designation of the policy needs that rise consciousness, with pertinence in explicating version schemes Figure 2. Applicability of the survey in Adaptation Policy Frameworks Adaptation Policy Frameworks ( APF ) for Climate Change ( Developed by UNDP ) 1. Scoping and planing an version undertaking 2. Measuring current exposure: Current clime hazards ; Socio-economic conditions ; Adaptation baseline ; Climate change exposure 3. Measuring future clime hazards: Climate tendencies ; Socio-economic tendencies ; Natural resource and environment tendencies ; Adaptation barriers and chances 4. Explicating an Adaptation Strategy 5. Monitoring and Evaluation Policy Development Integrated Assessment Applicability of the survey 6. Restrictions and Uncertainties There are three types of restrictions and uncertainnesss in incorporate assessment - proficient ( `` quality of informations available '' ) , methodological ( `` deficiency of sufficient cognition to make an equal theoretical account '' ) and epistemic ( e.g. human behaviour, entropy of nature ) ( Reilly and Willenbockel, 2010 ) . The survey will foreground those uncertainnesss and will utilize multiple plot line attack in order to turn to them. Bibliography: Adejuwon J. 2006 Food Security, Climate Variability and Climate Change in Sub Saharan West Africa. Final Report Submitted to Appraisals of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change ( AIACC ) , Project No. AF 23. Betts R. 2005 Integrated attacks to climate-crop modeling: demands and challenges. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2005 360, 2049-2065. Betts R. , Gornall J. , Burke E. , Clark R. , Camp J, Willett K. & A ; Wiltshire A. 2010 Implications of clime alteration for agricultural productiveness in the early 21st century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2010 365, 2973-2989. Bouwman A. , Kram T. & A ; Goldewijk K. 2006 Integrated modeling of planetary environmental alteration: An overview of IMAGE 2.4. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( MNP ) , Bilthoven, October 2006. MNP publication figure 500110002/2006. Challinor, A. J. , Ewert, F. , Arnold, S. , Simelton, E. & A ; Fraser, E. 2009 Crops and climate alteration: advancement, tendencies, and challenges in imitating impacts and informing version. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 2775-2789. Challinor, A. J. , Thornton P. , Jones P. & A ; Eriksen P. 2011 Agriculture and nutrient systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 A°C+ universe. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 117-136. Challinor, A. J. , Wheeler, T. , Garforth, C. , Craufurd, P. & A ; Kassam, A. 2007 Measuring the exposure of nutrient harvest systems in Africa to climate alteration. Clim. Change 83, 381-399. Cirera X. & A ; Masset E. 2010. Income distribution tendencies and future nutrient demand. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2010 365, 2821-2834. FAO. 2009 Climate Change and Food Security. A Framework Document ( www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf ) . FAO/ WFP 2010 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Fischer G, new wave Velthuizen, H. , Shah, M. & A ; Tubiello F. 2005, Socio-economic and climate alteration impacts on agribusiness: an incorporate appraisal, 1990 -2080 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2005 360, 2067-2083. Fischer, G. , Frohberg, K. , Keyzer, M. A. & A ; Parikh, K. S. 1988 Linked national theoretical accounts: a tool for international policy analysis. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic. Fischer, G. , Shah, M. , & A ; van Velthuizen, H. 2002b Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, Special Report to the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development. Johannesburg 2002. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA. IEG World Bank. 2007 Disasters, Climate Change, and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons and Future Directions. Evaluation Brief 3. IFPRI. 2008 International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade ( IMPACT ) : Model Description. Ingram J. , Gregory P. & A ; Brklacich M. 2005 Climate alteration and nutrient security. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2005 360, 2139-2148. IPCC 2000 Summary for policymakers, emanations scenarios. A Particular Report of IPCC Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. utz W. Samir KC. 2010 Dimensions of planetary population projections: what do we cognize about future population tendencies and constructions? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2010 365, 2779- 2791. Parry M. , Rosenzweig C. & A ; Livermore M. 2005, Climate alteration, planetary nutrient supply and hazard of hungriness. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2005 360, 2125-2138. Parry, M. L. , Rosenzweig, C. , Iglesias, A. , Livermore, M. & A ; Fischer, G. 2004 Effects of clime alteration on planetary nutrient production under SRES emanations and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change 14, 53-67. Raleigh C. , Jordan L. and Salehyan I. Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Migration and Conflict. The World Bank Group. Reilly M. & A ; Willenbockel D. 2010 Managing uncertainness: a reappraisal of nutrient system scenario analysis and mold. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2010 365, 3049-3063. Satterthwaite D. , McGranahan G. & A ; Tacoli C. 2010 Urbanization and its deductions for nutrient and agriculture. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2010 365, 2809-2820. Scholes, R. J. & A ; Biggs, R. 2004 Ecosystem services in Southern Africa: a regional appraisal. Pretoria, South Africa: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. Stern N. 2006 Stern Review on the Economicss of Climate Change. Prepared for HM Treasury, Cabinet Office. UNDP, Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change. ( available at: www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html )

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