Decision Analysis – Personal Essay

Decision Analysis has been established to advance theory, application, and teaching of all aspects of decision-making methods. . When It comes to beginning to make decisions for any business, almost everyone can feel uncertainty and fear. The more Information given, then the most likely the decisions made are the right ones. TLS Includes being able to trade off the values of certain outcomes against Its probability. Data shows the truest form of the Information given. The knowledge changes from data to information, from information to facts, and lastly from facts to knowledge.

The entire decision making process is done under uncertainty and immeasurable variables. Values and numbers become much easier for people to use and understand. Once the numbers and circumstances are in place, the true analysis can begin. Using the work cell method, the company can have the following advantages: (1) reduced work in progress inventory, (2) less floor space use, (3) reduced raw material and finished goods inventory, (4) reduced labor costs, (5) more employee participation, (6) increased equipment and machinery use, and (7) reduced investment in machinery and equipment.

I have chosen this decision analysis tool by imputing the performance times for each task given of A through H and the sequence requirements into an assembly line balancing tool to perform an analysis to determine the proper number of stations and the most efficient workflow possible. The analysis tool calculated that the number of workstations needed was 5. Total station task time needed was 10 minutes and the time needed per cycle was 46 minutes. These calculations gave this process an efficiency of 100. 00%. This decision tool was selected to help achieve a higher efficiency of production and a possible deduction in production floor space. A properly balanced line will increase throughput and lower production costs.

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Hopefully, by recommending this tool, the company will be able to eliminate significant errors that can result in false assumptions, inaccurate estimations of probabilities, too much relying on expectations, wrong measuring in functions, and/or forecasting errors. B. 1. The impact of costs on the decision to move forward with the new Maim Sandal line is as follows: As the production continues, the hours needed for each batch, or individual pair, will begin to decrease. By continuing to produce this line the total labor costs will continue to decrease, but most likely, at a slower rate as more sandals are produced. This data can help the company decide employment levels, capacity, costs, and their pricing of this particular merchandise in the open market.

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