Impact of Climate Change on Food Security
[pic] [pic] CASESTUDY: SOLOMON ISLANDS NAME: LIZZIE IMMACULATE. TEGU ID #: S11053489 Course Code: GE302 DUE DATE: week -13- 2011 Lecturer: Dr. Tamarisi Yabaki INTRODUCTION Agricultural sector was the most important sector for the economy. It accounts for approximately 30% of the GDP. Agricultural export is a major source of export earnings and it is the main source of employment and livelihood in the rural areas. Agriculture consists of three sub-sectors: subsistence smallholder farming, a commercial sub-sector, and large plantations (Central Bank of Solomon Islands, 2006, Annual Report 2005).
On the other hand, the climate of the Solomon Islands is changing and people are now experiencing increased in intensity or severity of extreme events like cyclones, storm surges, floods and droughts.
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These extreme events are causing substantial damage to agriculture and associated infrastructure with negative impact on food production. In which, There is increasing concern over the consequences of climate change on food production amongst the Pacific Island Countries, Solomon Islands for instance.
Already, the changing weather patterns is having some effects soil fertility, pests and diseases, increased heat stress on plants, changes in rainfall and soil moisture, salt water incursion from rising sea-levels and increased damage on agriculture and crops from extreme weather events (Baragamu, G. 2008). Well, in this report it will focus on the effects of climate change on the agriculture expansion in Solomon Islands. However, the research will concentrate looked at the food security and land specifically apart from livestock, fisheries, and forestry as a part of agriculture as well.
Besides, the research looks at how effects of climate changes affect land , and result in lessen of food crops such as taro, banana, sweet potatoes, Pineapple, coconut, and so on. Statement of the problem Well, this research project will mainly focus on the climate change and its effect on the agricultural expansion in SIDS. The problem that this research tried to find it out is that, how do the SIDS will cope with drastic effect of climate change if there is no enough land left for agriculture to expand, for example low-lying lands are covered due to sea-level rise Ontong Java for instances.
And also what happened if the crops are affected due to increased of temperature, and humidity where it encourage the plants to die out due to lack of underground water, and also encourage of pests to damage the crops, whilst it lessen the agricultural productions in the country. It leads to downfall of the GDP of the economy, poverty that people will experience. In which it is a problem for Solomon Islands, therefore these research will investigate on the problem, and come with a possible solutions to help them to deal with problem.
Significance of the study The significance of this research is that, to find out the most problems, and challenges that face by the Solomon Islands in terms of their agricultural expansion as result of climate change, and how it halt the agriculture development at the community basis or level and to provide some possible solutions to help them to cope with the changing climate. BACKGROUND INFROMATION The country had an estimated population of 508,000, there were nine provinces in the country Malaita is the most populous and Renbel the least populous.
The population of Solomon Islands is predominantly Melanesian (about 95%) although there are smaller Polynesian, Micronesian, Chinese and European communities ( Solomon Islands national census statistic, 2007). Moreover, the economy is largely dependent on agriculture, forestry, and fishing. For a high proportion of the population (mainly village-based), the Solomon Islands economy involves the production of subsistence foods and other items for personal consumption.
The main item of production for cash at the village level is copra (the dried flesh of coconut), but also significant in some areas is cocoa, market vegetables and marine products including fish and shells. Export commodities include gold, copra, wood and fish products, and cocoa (Judith A. Bennett 1978) Solomon Islands is a low-lying coastal country that shares similar sustainable development challenges, including small population, remoteness, susceptibility to natural disasters, vulnerability to external shocks, and excessive dependence on international trade and foreign aid.
Besides, Solomon Islands have particular problems and concerns in dealing with the effects of climate change, variability and extreme events, and Climate change will be a major impediment to the achievement of sustainable development in Solomon Islands. As all economic and social sectors are likely to be adversely affected, and the cost of adaptation will be disproportionately high, relative to gross domestic product (GDP) (World Bank, 2000). GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION & INFORMATION
The Solomon Islands is located between latitudes 5o South and 12o South and longitudes 1520 East and 1630 East in the Pacific Ocean, encompassing a total land area of 28, 785 square kilometres (km-2) and an Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ) of 1. 34 million km-2. The land area of the Solomon Islands consists of a double chain of six large islands that make up total 997 islands. The double chain of islands is described as a fragmented island arc situated along the boundary between the Ontong Java Plateau-Central Pacific Basin and the Solomon Sea-Woodlark-Torres Basins.
A composite basin separates the double chain of islands that make up the main archipelago of the Solomon Islands and is the segment of the Melanesian Island arch complex that separates the Pacific Ocean from the Coral Sea and Solomon Sea (Geography. about Solomon 2005). Map of Solomon Islands [pic] Source:http://maps. google. com/maps? hl=en&biw=1276&bih=820&bav=on. 2,or. r_gc. r_pw. &wrapid=tlif130062192869311&q=google+map+of+solomon) OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH • To find out the effects of climate change on the agricultural production specifically on the food security. To find out whether the halt of agricultural expansion affect the livelihood and nation as a whole. • To find out the challenges or problems that Solomon Islanders or farmers were facing due to climate change. • To determine adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the effect of climate change, local and national level. LITERATURE REVIEW According to Kenneth M, and Joel S (1995), they highlighted that agricultural production could decrease in many countries, low-lying land; particularly in deltas could inundated by sea-level rise.
Thus, they said that, climate change could cause developing countries to fall farther behind developed countries. In which they provide examples, that agricultural output in many developing may be reduced by climate change compared to what it would be without it, while many developed nations could have increased output, because high dependence on climate sensitive systems, and rapid population growth, cause developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.
Besides that, he mention that, countries with large agricultural productions in deltas, such as Egypt, Bangladesh, and China are particularly vulnerable for a 1m sea level rise, in which he people will be at risk because they depend on agriculture for food and monetary purposes. In which Solomon Islands experience the similar problems as stated by the two authors. Well, in addition to that, in the coming decades, many low-lying areas, and plain areas in Solomon Islands will almost certainly suffer from more frequent and intense droughts and floods, which will reduce yields and potentially fuel forest clearance.
Moreover, according to Aalbersberg, W. , Nun, P. D. , and Ravuvu, A. D. (1993), stated that climate change has the great effect on agriculture in a sense that increased temperatures will cause heat stress on many plants, and increased evaporation may lead to increased drought, especially in drier areas during the dry season. Besides that, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide will increase plant growth; faster growth will also lessen time maturity. This could decrease yields and perhaps food values. Weeds will also grow faster, competing with plants for water and soil nutrients, and areas of agriculture would shift.
Due to warming upland area could be planted with crops that previously could not be grown there. Sea-level rise will claim coastal land that is currently for agriculture through inundation or salination where it affect the expansion of agriculture whilst it cause the price to accelerate, and the economy of the SIDS will be drop. To more extent, other factors affecting agricultural output may change in a warmer, more humid south-west Pacific. The occurrence of agricultural pests may increase causing lower yields and increased loss during storage.
His sum up with one statement which is,” Farmers are likely to be less productive as temperature and humidity increase”. Well, there are ways that the authors highlight to mitigate climate change in terms of agriculture, for example Network internationally, it was global research to find out cultivars that are less sensitive to heat, salt and drought stress, and it required technological developments that help us the pacific to address these problems. However, it is not applicable for the Solomon Islands for instance, because it was very expensive in sense that it required professionals to deal with this kind of experiment and very demand.
And also, they didn’t seen the underlying issues of resistance to heat, salt because pacific islands are surrounded by oceans, and even though they find those cultivars but they do not suite the climate conditions in the pacific. The gap of this research is the way forward to achieve the sustainable agriculture where it not cause climate change on the other hand whilst it will adapt to the changing environment rather than emphasis on the sophisticated technology with the solutions that cannot applicable for the
SIDS, Solomon Islands for instance. Nevertheless, look carefully on the simple methods that agriculture could expand but does not create any green house gases as well. METHODOLOGY The completion of this report was extracting from a wide Variety of sources, which included quantitative and qualitative data. They highlight below under each sub-heading. In addition, the sample size of the population that interviewed are fifteen (15) both students and working staff for supporting ideas for substantiate some ideas gathered from the secondary sources.
Quantitative Method Quantitative is a numerical data in which it is gathered and collected from the interviewees and from the secondary sources; for example, collected data from the internet about the total agricultural production that damaged due to effects of climate change. Besides, collected trend of temperature, and also the amount of rainfall from each meteorological station in Solomon Islands. Hence, the information gathered, and the sources of information will be summaries in the table below. Sources |Types of information |Primary data |Secondary data | |Internet |Total agricultural production that damaged | | | | |Trend of temperature | | | | |Amount of rainfalls | | | | |Rate of change in sea level height | | | However, there were difficulties and challenges faced during the collections of figures, in which the figures collected from the internet and books were general to understand and analysed in order to pick out the relevant figures. Besides, the sample size of the research did not achieve the accurate results because the sample size was very small. QUALITATIVE METHOD Qualitative is normally non-numeric data in which it gathered during data collection. There were many sources of information collected through websites, books, Library, interviews, observation and so forth. Below summaries the types of information gathered and their source. Sources |Types of information |Primary data |Secondary data | |Internet & Grounded theory |Information for the literature review | | | | |Google pictures of the site | | | | |Effects of climate changes | | | | |Impact of climate change | | | | |Geographical information for Solomon Islands | | | | |Relevant information on the effects of climate change | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Library books |Literature review | | | | |addition information on the topic | | | |Interviews& questionnaires |Effect of climate changes in Solomon Islands | | | | |In terms of the agricultural productions specifically on food| | | | |security | | | |Suggestions of new strategies adaptations for development | | | | |sustainability | | | |Observation |Damaged of crop productions | | | |Lecture handouts |Report format | | | However, there were difficulties and challenges faced while searching for the information because there was very general information gathered for the literature review. Besides, the questionnaire are not properly answered due to some students did not understand what climate change is. To more extent, the questionnaires are delay to give it back, thus it delayed to complete my report in time. Despite of the challenges and difficult faced, the information was accessible and available. RESULTS AND FINDINGS
Solomon Islands has a climate humid and warm with mean daily maximum temperature of about 300 ? C and a mean daily minimum of about 230 ? C. Rainfall distribution is quite varied with annual average rainfall normally ranges from3000mm to 5000mm. Often drought in the country is associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). From about December to March, a period of west to north-westerly monsoonal winds and abundant rainfall can expected as well as a period where tropical cyclones form and affect the islands. The south-east trade winds (SE trades) blows from around May to October and trigger higher rainfall particularly on the windward side of the islands (http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. com).
Figure 1. 0. Shows The annual mean temperature trends for two locations indicate a warming trend since the 1950s. This is consistent with warming trend elsewhere in the Pacific islands region. [pic] [pic] Source: http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. com The above two figures obviously indicated the warming trend of two main stations in Solomon Islands since 1950. The best fit maximum temperature approximately starting from 29. 0 C and gradually upward, while the minimum temperature approximately from 22. 0 C and upward. So by telling that because of the mean, it seen the temperature was gradually increasing with respects to the number of years.
Therefore, because of the positive changing in temperature it would actually decreased yields of agriculture crops especially taro, potatoes and so forth on the coastal lowlands, and fires can also result from burning of debris in shifting agriculture systems. Moreover, The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4) estimates that sea-level rise over the last century was 1. 7+ 0. 5mm/yr. However, from 1961-2003, the average rate of sea level rise is estimated at 1. 8+ 0. 5mm/yr. Global projection of sea level rise estimated by AR4 ranges from 0. 18m to 0. 59m (IPCC 2007). Thermal expansion accounts for about 75% of the total sea level rise (http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. com). Figure 2. 0.
Shows the rate of sea level rise in the last 10 years up to 2006 from satellite records. In the southwest Pacific (Melanesia region), the rate of change of sea level height as measured by satellites over the 10 years was at 8-10mm/yr, approximately three times the global average. In more recent measurements of sea level in Solomon Islands from 1994 up to June 2008, indicates the net relative sea level trend at 7. 6mm/yr, which two-time average of the trend up to June 2007. [pic] Source: http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. com It clearly, shown above in the global map with respects to scale and colour signify the raising sea level due to the climate change. Moreover focuses ainly on Pacific Ocean especially Solomon islands, and from the map, Solomon Islands is located between latitudes 50 South and 120 South and longitudes 1520 East and 1630 East in the Pacific Ocean. So the color that represent the region is somewhere between the scales reading of 3-9 mm per years. So evidently, Solomon Islands facing the sea level rising which causes salt-water intrusion, storm surge and flooding in low-lying coastal areas of the main islands and the atolls such as Ontong Java are already threatening food crops and livelihoods. Figure 3. 0. While temperature records show a generally warming trend, rainfall records show a downward trend.
Rainfall trend for seven meteorological stations in Solomon Islands. [pic] Source: http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. com From the graphs above shows the rainfall trend for the seven meteorological stations in Solomon Islands from each year. Likewise, it showed the amount of rainfall from each provinces in Solomon Islands as well, where in some provinces the amount of rainfall were increasing from1960s , Auki for instance as shown in the map. Therefore, the above station evidently had shown the downward trend of rainfall due to the changing of climate. As compare to the pass years from 1950 the amount of rainfall increase, while in the current years the amount of rainfall going downward.
The trend of best-fit line is downward, which indicate the decrease in amount of rainfall, and raise the temperature, where could change the pattern of the environment system. So this may result in high intensity storm events, increased evaporation and more pronounced dry seasons, could have severe impacts on agriculture crop production and intense rainfall during planting seasons could damage seedlings, reduce growth and provide conditions that promote plant pests and diseases. Moreover, below were the responses from the 15 interviewees on the effect of climate changes and its impact on the agricultural productions in Solomon Islands. Table 1. Show the number of the interviewees’ views on the objectives of the research topic. |Temperature |4 | |The effect of climate change on |Sea level Rise | | |agricultural expansion in Solomon Islands |Rainfall | | | |Cyclone |9 | | |Drought | | | |Flood | | | |Tsunami | | | |Storm surge |2 | |What will happen if the agricultural |National level |8 | |expansion decline? Less production to export | | | |Decreased in GDP of the economy | | | |Price of the production increase due to less supply | | | |Local level |7 | | |Less income earning | | | |Less production in the domestic market | | | |Decrease in food supply leading to the increase of prices, thus | | | |creating poverty to low ncome earners | | | |Rural villagers won’t make profit or money leading to the | | | |increase in poverty rate | | |Determine the challenges or problems |Decrease in food supply |5 | | |Increase in food prices | | | |Decrease in employment rate | | | |Poverty |3 | | |Diseases | | | |Hinder standard of living | | | |Water shortage for irrigation |1 | | |Decrease in GDP of the economy due to less agricultural |6 | | |production | | | |Decline in household purchasing power | | | |Decline in income basis for household | | |Determine adaptation and mitigation |Adaptation strategies |3 | |strategies to cope with the effect of |Diversify root crops. | | |climate change, local and national level. |Select crops and cultivars that tolerate stresses | | | |Increase support for plant breeding programs. | | | |Broaden genetic base of traditional food crops. | | | |Develop locally adapted crops. | | |Adopt agro-forestry practises. |5 | | |Promote low tillage and permanent soil cover on agricultural | | | |lands. | | | |Construct safe food storage facilities. | | | |Identify alternative food sources including imports. | | | |Research on farming systems including soil/land husbandry. | | | | | | | |3 | | |Mitigation strategies | | | |Promote adaptive management approaches. | | | |Increase public awareness about potential impacts on agriculture | | | |and food security. | | |Review breeding strategies and regulations concerning varieties |4 | | |release and seed distribution | | | |Support agriculture research especially on traditional food | | | |crops. | | | |Encourage and support local processing of food crops | |
The table had shown clearly the views of the interviewee about the climate change in Solomon Islands. There a maximum of 15 people, response to the questions and their views a arranged above in the table. More over most of them their views a similar, because of the reality that occur now in the country Solomon islands. Thus, they grouped according to their similarities on the responses. Besides, you can see that many interviewees answer some of the questions and few students answer some of the questions, but it based on what they experience that they see in the Solomon Islands about the effects of climate change, some of their perceptions on the mitigations and adaptations as indicated above.
Hence, some of their responses shown above are clearly stated that they really experience the severe effects of climate change in their homes in Solomon Islands, and suffered extensively from the impacts, western Solomon for instance where they heated by the Tsunami in 2007, in which they lived in poverty for a long period before they recovered. By saying this because, they lost their farms both subsistence and commercial farming, and the entire valuable belongings, house, and stuffs inside are damaged due to the drastic event. Figure 4. Shows the summary of the table into graph in percentage [pic] The pie chart showed the percentage of the responses, and by looking at the graph, it showed that, 75 percentages of the responses were strongly agreed that effect of climate change had a great impacts on food security, 20 % of the responses were fair in weighing the effects of climate change and other factors.
And 5 % they did not sure of the effects of climate change on food security. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND EXPANSION IN SOLOMON ISLANDS Table 2 a. Table shows the effect of climate change on agricultural productions that collected from the interviewees’ views and from other research findings in Solomon Islands. |Direct effect of climate change |Impacts | |Cyclone |Increased intensity/frequency of cyclones could have dramatic effects on agriculture and food | | |production that often lasts for many years. | |Also, after the immediate effects, pests and diseases could come in later damaging the newly grow | | |crops. | | |For examples, Cyclone Namu in 1986 had dramatic effects on commercial agriculture (palm oil and rice)| | |in Solomon Islands, particularly rice production has not recovered, and there is now a heavy reliance| | |on imported rice. | | |Rural people experienced downfall of food security due to the event. |Drought |Drought in different localised parts of the country, as influenced by ElNino and La Nina in 1987 | | |people experienced a long period of droughts , had a great impacts on food production | | |cause crops to die due to less underground water for the crop to absorb | | |Agricultural systems were seriously affected by drought conditions, and increased air temperature. | | |Coconut trees and pandanus trees, which are most resilient to dry conditions, wither away during | | |prolonged droughts.
Other crops breadfruit, banana and Giant swamp taro are in a worse state | | | | | | | |Floods |Cyclone Namu in 1986, flooding the crops both subsistence and commercial crops, decreased in food | | |security for the people, and export commodities as well. | | |Damaged the entire farm, e. g. the crops are underground. | | |Cause the root crops to rotten, e. g. cassava, sweet potatoes, taro, vegetables and so on. | | |Flooding low-lying coastal areas of the main islands and the atolls such as Ontong Java are already | | |threatening food crops and livelihoods. | |It lessen the production , and it affect the local markets in urban areas because less production | | |they sold in the market, and it cause the price of the crops to accelerated, where even the goods in | | |the shop are cheap as compared to the cultivated crops. | | |Storm surge and flooding in low-lying coastal areas of the main islands and the atolls such as Ontong| |Storm surge |Java, Tikopia, Anuta are already threatening food crops and livelihoods. |Tsunami | | | |Washed away crops, such as coconut, sweet potatoes, and vegetables and so on in the western part of | | |Solomon Islands in 2007. | Table 1b. Shows the indirect effects of climate change |Indirect Impact of Climate Change |Impacts | |Temperature |Increased temperatures – A correlation has been found between rising temperatures and decreased | | |yields of taro on the coastal lowlands of Makira (Legu 2006). Fires can also result from burning of | | |debris in shifting agriculture systems, Malaita, Solomon Islands. | | | | | | | |Changes in rainfall, high intensity storm events, increased evaporation and more pronounced dry | |Rainfall |seasons, could have severe impacts on agriculture crop production | | |Intense rainfall during planting seasons could damage seedlings, reduce growth and provide | | |conditions that promote plant pests and diseases | | |More pronounced dry seasons, warmer temperature and greater evaporation on the other hand could | | |induce plant stress reducing productivity and harvest and subsequently, affect food security. The | | |alternate scenario of increased rainfall could have equally severe impacts with waterlogged soils | | |decreasing agricultural production, while increased humidity and rainfall could provide ideal | | |conditions for the proliferation of a number of plant pathogens. E. g.
Malaita province in Solomon | | |Islands | | |These conditions could lead to declining agricultural production and this would adversely affect | | |both the country’s economy and food security | | |Plants flowering earlier than usual while others are fruiting much later than normal during the past| | |3-4 years Pineable for instance. Southeast trade winds that were still blowing at end October when | | |traditionally this would have ended in August/September each year. Whilst these people agree that | | climate change may have something to do with these changes, it was difficult for them to determine | | |the extent such changes were influenced by climatic conditions and variations. | |Sea level rise |Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion is becoming more evident, reducing the area of land available for| | |agriculture either directly through loss of agricultural land or indirectly due to families moving | | |further from the coast and taking up agricultural land, E. g. western Solomon Islands, and artificial| | |Islands. | |This erosion also increases vulnerability of agricultural land to rapid onset disasters such as | | |cyclones and storm surges due to the reduction in the natural barrier functions from changes in | | |coastal profiles | | |Salt-water intrusion, storm surge and flooding in low-lying coastal areas of the main islands and | | |the atolls such as Ontong Java are already threatening food crops and livelihoods. | | | | The above tables summarize the results collected from the interviewees on the effects of climate change on the agricultural expansion, to the extent, food security. Well there were two tables above which is figure 1a and b, and they were categorize in two different sub headings which is direct effects and indirect effects of climate change as shown clearly.
Seeing that they affected the food security in both ways, which is the Solomon Islanders are experience food insecurity and less production for export especially, cocoa, copra, and oil palm for instance. Take for example climate change affect our food security directly as shown above, where by the crops were damaged instantly at the spot when the event strike, and lessen the foods for the household and as well as the productions at the national level in the Solomon Islands. While indirectly effects happened in another way around, where as a result of the sea level rise, it cause salt intrusion and coastal erosion, which lead to less land along the coast for crops and cash crops, cocoa for instance to grow. Table 2: shows the crops that are vulnerable to climate change as stated by the interviewees. crops |Effects | |Taro |Easily destroyed by cyclone | |Sweet Potatoes |Damaged by flooding | |Cassava |Damaged by High intensity of rainfall and cyclone | |Cocoa |Damaged by flooding | |Coconut |Destroyed by sea level rise | |Pineable |High intensity of rainfalls where it delay the flowering , and as well as the harvesting | |Cabbage |Spoiled the leaves to rotten | |Giant swamp Taro |Cause to turn yellow colour due to salt intrusion, less underground water | |Yam |High rainfalls, and cyclone cause the crop to rotten, and damaged | |Pana |High rainfalls and cyclone | |Palm Oil |Flooding due to intensity rainfalls | This table showed the type of crops that are vulnerable to climate change, for example Taro, Cassava in which they can easily destroyed by the cyclones and high intensity of rainfall. During cyclones, there always be a strong wind and associate with heavy rain falls, whereby it totally damaged the taro leaves into pieces, and the breeze from the sea can cause the taro leaves to turn yellow due to the high intensity of salt, Thus, it cause the Taro corm to rotten.
Besides, the strong wind also damaged the Cassava stalk. If the cassava is premature in which it affect the root crops to small in size for the stage of maturity or if not it cannot yield or have no root crops anymore, because it disturbed the growth. Moreover, cocoa, oil palm and coconut are the major cash crops in Solomon Islands; and, they highly vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding result from eroding of coastal land or coastal erosion where it dug the coconuts out, and flooding could wiped the cocoa and oil palm out due to the great force of the current. Along the same line, it digs the riverbanks and causes the cocoa along the rivers to wash down along the river.
Figure 4: shows the percentages of agricultural productions that affected due to the effects of climate change from 2004 to 2007. [pic] Source: Central Bank of Solomon Islands, 2006, Annual Report 2005 The figure above obviously had shown the outcomes of agriculture production that was affects by the climate change as from 2004 to 2007 both subsistence and commercial. Well the output affects product was increases accordingly, like in 2004, the affected products percentage was 21%, 24% for 2005, followed by 25% for 2006 and 30% for 2007 and as it continues the percentage will increases accordingly. This is because of the changes in temperature and rainfall and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in Solomon Islands.
Now day families and communities experience inadequate supply of food from their garden, which leads to the limited products supply due to the following experiences: • Yield from staple fruits trees is not sufficient to meet the food needs of the population and this problem is exacerbated by natural cycle and weather pattern changes. • Yield from roots crops is not sufficient to meet the food needs of the population because of declining soil fertility and poor choice of root crop varieties. • Yield from supplementary sources of food (bush, and gardens) have declined because of climate change and sea level rise. • Less production export in which it decrease the GDP of the economy
In addition, coastal garden areas (mainly taro patches) were flooded by seawater for long period, and caused the swamp taro tubers to turn yellow and bitter rendering them not suitable for Consumption. Hence, Seawater flooding also affected the quantity and quality of potable water supply that could be exacerbated by drought conditions. Thus for Ontong Java sea-level change and its concomitant consequences are already being experienced. DISCUSSION Well agriculture sector was the backbone of the pacific islands countries, particularly Solomon Islands because it accounts and contributes in to the economic sector with higher percentage of the GDP.
Not only that but it was also accommodated the daily and sustainability of earning for the rural people (Legu, M. 2006). Therefore, it is a concern for every people and well as government to take action, adaption and mitigation strategies on this issue of growing climate changes on the food security and agriculture production. Refer to figure 1. 0. It depict out the increasing minimum and maximum temperature of two main islands, Malaita and Guadalcanal of Solomon islands since the 1950s. Besides, the best fit maximum temperature approximately from 29. 0 ? C and gradually upward, while the minimum temperature approximately from 22. 0 ? C and upward.
From that, you can see that best fit is continuously increasing from 1950s to 2007, likewise from 2007 to 2011 in which the temperature might 30. 0 ? C from the estimation from the figure. Besides, the figure 1. 0 was true because it back up the evidence from the interviewees, where they said that they experienced droughts, and hot session not like before. Where, some of the grasslands in Guadalcanal province were in flame, due to the friction between the grasses itself and the hot weather. These lead to the massive destruction on the crops due to the burning, and diminish the growth of the agricultural crops because of inadequate nutrients and ground water to the support the growth of the crops.
Increased temperatures resulted in a correlation has been found between rising temperatures and decreased yields of taro on the coastal lowlands of Makira (Legu 2006). Fires can also result from burning of debris in shifting agriculture systems. For example, in 1997 and 1998 ENSO, people experienced a long period of drought , result in hunger due to poor quality of crops because they are affected by disease because they breed in dry session, sweet potatoes for instance, and so on, where only few crops have left, in which it reduced in food supply for the household consumption (Legu 2006). Besides, swamp water for the Giant swamp Taros were dried up, and they are dead due to no water for them to keep alive and as well rice farms.
Whilst, it reduced in food security and even the production, rice for instance for both daily consumption and export were affected. Along the same line, in 2002, they experienced the long sunshine period due to effects of climate change, and it has the great effect on food security in a sense that increased temperatures will cause heat stress on many plants, and increased evaporation may lead to increased drought, especially in drier areas during the dry season, (Personal Interview of Dr. Morgan). Hence, it affected the food production to be less in the central market in Honiara, where it causes the price of the crops too expensive for the urban dwellers especially for the low-income earners. Moreover, according to figure 2. 0.
It shows the rate of sea level rise in the last 10 years up to 2006 from satellite records. In the southwest Pacific (Melanesia region), and Solomon Islands is one of them. Likewise, the record indicates that from 1994 to 2008 the relative trend of sea level rise is 7. 6 mm per year for Solomon Islands (http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. com). Well, estimated from 2008 to 2011 where the global trend of the seal level rise is 1. 1 mm per year, in which absolutely it rise to 11 mm according to the record from the estimation. In addition, sea level rise spoil the swamp Taros and cause intrusion to the leaves to turn yellow because it resist to salination, and even the corm of the swamp Taros (Kakake) are perished.
Hence it affect the food security to reduce and some household experienced hunger during flooding, and diseases, because this food can substituted instead of high land taro, and sweet potatoes and so on for their survival. besides, it signifies that coastal land are eroding, where it reduced the size of the land to plant coconut and cocoa Plantations where they used to reside along the coast in which they found land areas to plant. To more extent, from the responses of the interviewees, it shows that sea level rise and Cyclones and storm surges was a major problem especially the low-lying coast in Solomon Islands especially, Ontong Java, Tikopia, Anuta, western Solomon, and northern Solomon. For example, a storm in early 2006 coinciding with high tides caused extensive floods on the two permanently inhabited islands, Luaniua and Pelau.
And Ontong Java considered highly vulnerable to cyclones due to the high exposure and sensitivity to impacts from flooding, dependence on few crops (mainly coconuts and taro) and wind-sensitive house constructions. In addition, from the interviewees, especially the students from western part of Solomon Islands, they said that, they experienced the great massive of destruction on the agricultural productions and as well taking life of human. For example, in 2007, the Tsunami heats the coastal area in western Solomon and split the villages into half, and washed away the crops along the coast, and they experienced great hunger ever in their lives that they did not experienced in life before. (Personal Interview with students). Below is the picture of the Tsunami in 2007. [pic][pic] Source: by Calwin, 2007
As you can see from the picture above, the Tsunami split the Coconut Plantation, and all the coconut trees along the coast were washed away, and with their homes. The impacts result in coastal erosion, and eroded of the large area of land that planted by coconut and cocoa trees, and the sea come through the inner part of the land and washed ? part of the plantation away. Likewise, it results in shortage of supplies to the main centre for exporting, because less coconut and cocoa ripe fruits collected for dryer. Hence, it reduced the revenue coming into the country for increased the economy in terms of the GDP, this is because coconut and cocoa are primary products and main source of export from Solomon Islands.
Well, it affected the household income basis because less income received from the selling of the dryer coconut flesh and dry and wet cocoa beans, result in hindrance for their livelihood in terms of living standard. Likewise, they suffered from the drastic event until today. Furthermore, agricultural productivity in PICs is heavily dependent on the seasonal rainfall. About 70% of the gross cropped area in the Pacific Islands is geographically located to benefit from rains in the summer season (November – April). Well, most of the rural population in Solomon Islands lived and cultivated crops in areas where annual rainfall was in the range 1800–3500 mm.
In mountainous locations where clouds formed early in the day and reduced sunlight, human settlement and agriculture was generally absent. Localities where the annual rainfall was more than 4000 mm tend to be wet and have too much cloud covered for good agricultural production. The variation of the normal rainfall can have many impacts to the agriculture products like shift of rainfall patterns affect planting time, growing stages, harvest periods, post harvesting storage and drastically reduced the total yield (World Bank, 2000). Cocoa production is widely distributed throughout Solomon Islands, grown in all provinces except Rennel/Bellona, which makes cocoa the second most important cash crop after coconut.
The high rainfall in production areas led to severe outbreaks of the Black-pod disease having devastating effects on production ( personal interviews with student). Agriculture and crop productions were under stress from these climatic factors but it remains difficult to predict the likely outcomes with certainty because of limited empirical data for the Solomon Islands. These can affected the local food consumption and the total exports of products per year, which also contributed to the decline in country GDP. Hence, by observation the most destructive impacts of excessive rainfall on agriculture infrastructure and crops are flooding and water logging.
For example, Cyclone Namu in 1986 had dramatic effects on commercial agriculture (palm oil and rice), and in Solomon Islands, particularly rice production has not recovered, and there is now a heavy reliance on Imported rice (personal interviewed with Dr. Morgan, 2011). Another example, flooding in 2009-caused damage to gardens and the oil palm and other outdoor crops, these in fact lead to lose in output oil palm and other farmers loses. And affected the livelihood of the people both rural and urban dwellers, and even at the national level GDP for instance reduced because less merchandise to export (Lizzie Tegu, 2009). Below show some pictures in 2009 flooding in Solomon Islands and affected the outskirts of the Town Honiara, even further away from the City in Guadalcanal province. [pic][pic]
Source: shot by Lizzie Tegu, 2009 These pictures have taken during the flood in 2009 but just outskirt of the cities, and only few but not all pictures. Moreover, from the analysis of the interviewees’ views or responses from the tables, it come with the summary that, absolutely the food security was rapidly reduced due to the effects of climate change that discussed above. Well, it shown that, Solomon Islanders facing a great challenges and problems but they do not realized the real effects on the food security, in which they experienced less food for household consumption, and some urban dwellers experienced the price of the crops were increasing so fast from year to year.
Imagine that even the crops were very expensive than the proceed food in the shops in Solomon Islands, where the price should decrease because there was no Taxes, labour cost on the crops, but it shown that the productions is reduced but they do not know the exact causes. In addition, from some findings shows that there are great percentage lose from the agricultural production especially food security both in rural areas and outskirt of the city of Honiara. Where figure 4, give the actual data, each year the percentage of the crops were decreased due to cyclones, flooding, seal level rise, drought, and so on as indicate from the table above. As you can see below was the picture taken during the Cyclone that affected Tikopia, and Lordhowe (http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. com). [pic] Source: http://www. SolomonIslandsNapa. pdf. om). From the responses, highlighted that, flooding was a major problem in Solomon Islands, Guadalcanal province where Honiara city is located, it have a great massive destruction on the Oil palm plantation, where it washed away the new seedlings and even dig out the big Oil palm trees and through the river to the seas. Where it results in low export of Oil palm to the global market and it really affected the GDP of the economy to fall and experience devalued in currency. Besides, the sweet potatoes, melons, vegetables were damaged and covered with ground, and it happen every year in Solomon Islands during heavy rains associate with cyclones.
Where it affected the food security to reduce, and daily income of the people halt and it affected the purchasing power of the rural people for other necessities from the shops. The interviewees’ responses gave me clear picture that some of their places where they plant their crops covered with seas, Makira province in Solomon Islands for instance. Besides, the coconut and cocoa plantation really affected by the sea level rise because it would erode the coconut and cocoa trees into the sea and covered with seas today especially my home village, and it seen that the half bottom coconut was standing in the beach, but before there was a land mass that occupied with coconut plantations.
Thus, it affect the owner of the plantations because their plantation size already reduce, and it can lessen the mature coconut fruits during their maturity stage to fall, where they can make 10 bags of coconut drier only to sell it for the Liver Company Limited for exporting. While before he can make 30 bags out of the plantation during one harvest. Likewise, it really shown the great changes on his output, and even the income he received also reduced as he expected for his family survival. Therefore, climate change was really a challenge to hinder the living of people in terms of the income they received from their productions, and to the extent, the production for exporting also reduced and it cause the GDP of the economy to fall. The adverse impacts on agriculture and food security are a major concern for many communities and/or villages.
Evidence from changes in temperature and rainfall and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in Solomon Islands will have long-term effects on food production systems. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Below are the suggestions from the interviewees and from other findings in Solomon Islands. a) National Food Security programme, food security issue is common to all service providers in the agriculture sector. b) Provincial Food Banks – To mitigate and prepare against the effects of climate change such as cyclones, tsunamis, floods, and pest outbreaks, provincial food banks must be established at strategic sites. c) Crop diversification – The introduction of various crops to boost food production and economic development in the country must continue. This activity can be one by all players in agriculture development. d) Tolerant crop species – salt, drought, high rainfall, etc. – Crop varieties that are tolerant to extreme effects of climate change must be identified and rapidly propagated and distributed to hot spots. e) Rapid Response to disasters – exotic pests and diseases outbreaks, floods – An agriculture rapid response center must be established to prepare for any disasters such as pest and disease outbreaks. f) Weather forecasting- Predicting outbreaks of pest and diseases on crops -Developing capacity and capability to predict weather patterns such as weather simulations and pest and disease outbreaks would reduce crop loses. ) Weather stations establishment at agriculture production areas – The establishment of weather stations at agriculture field stations would ensure that data on rainfall, sunlight, and temperature are kept. This information is critical for crop production. h) National Urban Fruit Tree Planting – Planting fruit trees in urban centers such as Honiara, Auki, Gizo, Kirakira, Buala, Lata, Taro, Tulagi, and Tingoa. This will serve two purposes; as a source of fresh fruits and as beautification of the towns. It is vital for everyone in Solomon Islands to practices this adaptation and mitigation to improve their food security and even safe side during those drastic events happening in our country.
Besides, Government must work hard by giving out people to give awareness or workshops on the type of system in order to implement in the communities in the provinces in Solomon Islands. CONCLUSION From the findings, it shown clearly that Climate change is a threat to Solomon Islands as it affected the livelihood of people both directly and indirectly in rural and urban areas in terms of hunger, decreased in household income, and affected their purchasing power because agriculture is the source of living in Solomon Islands. And, to the extent it affected the national level in the country as well due to decreased in GDP result from less merchandize export.
Hence, Government and individuals should act on by looking for possible adaptation and mitigation strategies or adapt to the highlighted ones above to help each other, in order to minimize the impacts on the food security, and as well as the welfare of the nation. BIBLIOGRAPHY Aalbersberg, W. , Nun, P. D. , and Ravuvu, A. D. 1993. Climate and agriculture in the Pacific islands: future perspectives. Institute of Pacific Studies, Suva, Fiji. Strzepek, K. M and Smith, J. B. 1995. As climate changes: International impacts and Implications. Cambridge University Press. New York, USA. FAO. 2010. Collaborative Changes: A communication framework for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security. Rome, Italy. Judith A. Bennett, 1978, Culture of Solomon Islands. Solomon printed limited, Honiara. Legu, M. 006, NCSA UNFCCC Stocktaking Report, Honiara, Solomon Islands. World Bank, 2000. Adapting to Climate Change. Vol. IV in Cities, Seas and Storms, Managing Change in Pacific Island Economies. Papua New Guinea and Pacific Island Country Unit, The World Bank. IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, available on line at http://www. grida. no/ climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/. Accessed 6th August from: http://sustainableagriculture. net/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/nsac_climatechangepolicypaper_final_2009_07_16. pdf Accessed 6th August from: http://www. ceepa. co. za/Climate_Change/index. html Accessed 7th August from: http://www. washingtonpost. com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2007/11/16/DI2007111601638. tm Accessed 7th from: http://www. faopacific. ws/Portals/167/publications/Current%20Updates/SAP%20publications/Vanuatu%20FAO%20climate%20change%20study. final. pdf Accessed 11th August from: http/siteresources. worldbank. org/INTPACIFICISLANDS/Resources/summary_Voulme_IV_test. pdf. APPENDICES Questionnaires 1. What are the effects of climate change on the agricultural production in your country? 2. Do you think that agriculture sector in your country seriously affect by the effect of climate change? (Yes or No). If yes, then in what way. 3. What are some challenges or problems that SIDS were face due to the halt of agricultural expansion? 4.
How do your people cope with the challenges or problems face by climate change on the agricultural development? 5. Do you think that halt of agricultural expansion affects life and nation as a whole? Give your reason. 6. Does your country have some possible ways to deal with these issues? Yes or No 7. What are some possible ways or solutions to address the challenges or problems in your country? 8. Do you think that Agriculture contributes a lot in the economic growth of the country? State your reason. 9. Do you think that climate change is the major problem on Agricultural expansion in SIDS? 10. What do you think if the agriculture did not expand? 11.
What are some ways to improve or increase the country is GDP if Agriculture is not progress well? 12. What are some suggestions that government need to implement in order to reduce the effect of climate change on agricultural expansion? 13. What are some of the effective methods that SIDS need to pursue in order to maintain their sustainability? 14. What are the effects on the livelihood of the people? 15. What is your advice for your Government as Citizen to address the issue? List of the Interviewees 1. Dr. Morgan 2. Simeon 3. Mike 4. John 5. Peter 6. Angela 7. Rodley 8. Calwin 9. Lavinia 10. Fred 11. Sau 12. Agnes 13. Emily 14. Matilda 15. Robert